Guinea - 16 feb. 2026 Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion

South Africa - 15 feb. 2026 South Africa Signs CAEPA With China and Accedes to AfrEximBank

Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea - 12 feb. 2026 Gulf of Guinea Gas Integration Accelerates

Mali, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Gambia - 11 feb. 2026 West Africa Trade Corridors Under Fire

DRC - 5 feb. 2026 Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor

Ethiopia - 5 feb. 2026 Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order

Guinea - 16 feb. 2026 Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion

South Africa - 15 feb. 2026 South Africa Signs CAEPA With China and Accedes to AfrEximBank

Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea - 12 feb. 2026 Gulf of Guinea Gas Integration Accelerates

Mali, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Gambia - 11 feb. 2026 West Africa Trade Corridors Under Fire

DRC - 5 feb. 2026 Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor

Ethiopia - 5 feb. 2026 Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order

Updates

Stay informed about the latest security developments across Africa. Our Updates provide key news on events shaping the continent's security landscape.

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Guinea 16 feb. 2026 09:24

Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion

Guinea has entered a new phase following the conclusion of elections that formalize the transition initiated after the September 2021 removal of President Alpha Condé. With President Mamadi Doumbouya consolidating authority and Prime Minister Amadou Bah Oury forming a new cabinet on February 4, 2026, the administration’s immediate task is clear: translate strong extractive-sector expansion into tangible improvements in living standards.

South Africa 15 feb. 2026 09:41

South Africa Signs CAEPA With China and Accedes to AfrEximBank

Pretoria’s recent economic announcements include (1) the signing of the China–Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (CAEPA) in Beijing on 6 February, and (2) formal accession to AfrEximBank on 4 February, alongside an $8 billion country programme.

Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea 12 feb. 2026 20:33

Gulf of Guinea Gas Integration Accelerates

Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea have signed a unitization agreement to jointly develop the cross-border Yoyo-Yolanda gas fields, unlocking an estimated 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas.

Mali, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Gambia 11 feb. 2026 09:36

West Africa Trade Corridors Under Fire

The main trade corridor linking Senegal (Port of Dakar) to Mali is undergoing a major disruption driven by escalating insecurity in western Mali—particularly in the Kayes region near the Senegalese border.

DRC 5 feb. 2026 10:39

Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor

Between 31 January and 2 February, Kisangani’s Bangboka airport area was struck by multiple explosive-laden drones, in an incident that drew national attention because it suggested the conflict’s reach could extend well beyond the usual eastern frontlines.

Ethiopia 5 feb. 2026 09:25

Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order

Less than three years after the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, northern Ethiopia is once again experiencing a deterioration in security conditions.

Mali, Senegal 31 jan. 2026 19:21

Strategic Interdiction of Fuel Supply Lines and Hostage Leverage by JNIM

On the morning of 29 January 2026, Mali experienced one of the most consequential jihadist operations of recent months, not due to its symbolic value, but because of its systemic strategic impact. A large fuel convoy originating from Senegal and transiting through western Mali along the Diboli–Kayes corridor was ambushed and neutralized by an estimated 100 fighters affiliated with Katiba Macina, a core component of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).

Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin 31 jan. 2026 19:15

Niamey Airport Attack: Islamic State Claims Responsibility

Less than 48 hours after the assault on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey on 29 January 2026, the IS-Sahel formally claimed responsibility. ASA assesses this confirms the attack was not an isolated security breach, but a deliberate, high-value operation aimed at Niger’s military and strategic infrastructure.

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REQUEST FOR INTEREST

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Please enter your contact information and your requirements and needs for us to come back to you with a relevant proposal.

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We respond within within 24 hours

African Security Analysis

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Prepared tomorrow.

Updates

Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion

South Africa Signs CAEPA With China and Accedes to AfrEximBank

Gulf of Guinea Gas Integration Accelerates

West Africa Trade Corridors Under Fire

Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor

Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order

Strategic Interdiction of Fuel Supply Lines and Hostage Leverage by JNIM

Niamey Airport Attack: Islamic State Claims Responsibility

How can we help you de-risk Africa?

African Security Analysis

ASA Situation Reports™

How can we help you de-risk Africa?

African Security Analysis

Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion

South Africa Signs CAEPA With China and Accedes to AfrEximBank

Gulf of Guinea Gas Integration Accelerates

West Africa Trade Corridors Under Fire

Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor

Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order

Strategic Interdiction of Fuel Supply Lines and Hostage Leverage by JNIM

Niamey Airport Attack: Islamic State Claims Responsibility

United States–Africa: Washington Prepares a Strategic Summit on Critical Minerals

DRC–Egypt Defence Axis: Kinshasa Deepens Strategic Military Partnerships Amid Accelerating Security Pressures

Egypt–Ethiopia: Nile Talks Reopen as Sisi Signals Openness to U.S. Mediation

Lake Chad Border Clash

Nigeria Under Pressure: ISWAP Pushback in Sambisa Meets Deadly Counterstrike and Expanding Internal Insecurity

South Sudan: Battlefield Momentum Meets Political Rupture as Peace Deal Frays

Senegal: IMF Re-Engagement Test as Program Freeze Weighs on Financing

Mass Kidnappings in Kaduna Intensify Political Fallout and Expose Fragility of Official Reporting in Nigeria

Niger: Tillabéri Massacre and Strategic Signals Around Uranium Logistics

Benin: Cotonou Weighs a USD ONE Billion Eurobond to Reopen Frontier Market Access

Nigeria: Paystack Acquires a Microfinance Bank, Signalling a Strategic Shift Beyond Payments

Burkina Faso — Damiba Handed Over: Power Consolidation, Alleged Plots, and the Hardening of Sahelian Politics

African Union: Preparations Underway in Addis Ababa for the 39th AU Summit

South Africa and Mozambique: Flooding Strains Transport, Agriculture, and Cross-Border Logistics

Las Anod — Mogadishu Asserts Federal Authority in a High-Risk Confrontation with Somaliland

Davos 2026: African Heads of State, Public Agendas, and Strategic Engagement

Ethiopia–Eritrea: Escalating Accusations and the Return of War Risk in the Horn of Africa

Kenya–Somalia Border: IED Attack in Mandera Underscores Persistent Cross-Border Threat

Cameroon Repositions Nkamouna-Lomié as a Strategic Battery Metals Asset

Uganda 2026 Elections: Nationwide Internet Shutdown and Its Implications for Electoral Integrity and Stability

Benin: Operation “Mirador” Signals a Strategic Shift in Northern Security

JNIM’s Shift to Economic Warfare and Political Destabilization

China’s Capture of Africa’s Scientific Elite — The Quiet Shift in Global Academic Power

Sahel Risk — U.S. Withdrawal From a Global Extremism-Prevention Fund Widens the “Prevention Gap”

Christmas Airstrikes in Nigeria: Counterterrorism and Geopolitical Implications

Mandate Without Unity: Somalia, Al-Shabaab, and the Security Council’s Strategic Dissonance

Madagascar: Covert Presidential Travel Signals Security Anxiety, Privatized Control Logic, and Resource-Sovereignty Stress

Morocco Elevates Maritime Security Posture Along Atlantic Lanes; Industry Issued Routing and Port Guidance

Eritrea Withdraws from IGAD: Strategic Isolation and Renewed Fractures in the Horn of Africa

The Alliance of Sahel States and the Push Toward the Gulf of Guinea: The Failed Coup in Benin as a Signal of Expanding Sahelian Influence

Niger–Uranium: Russian Vessel off Lomé, Stalled Yellowcake Convoy, and the Emerging Risk of an Airlift Scenario

Preliminary Situation Report: AFC/M23 Capture of Uvira, South Kivu

AES–Nigeria: Emergency Landing of Nigerian Military Aircraft Sparks New Airspace Tensions in the Sahel

Fall of Uvira: Operational Collapse, Regional Repercussions, and New Strategic Axes for the AFC/M23 Advance

Benin After the Failed Putsch: Stability Exposed, System Under Stress

Senegal – Critical Maritime Emergency: Tanker “MERSIN” Listing off Dakar with 39,000 Tonnes of Diesel

ECOWAS Parliament Approves Regional Defence Pact

Guinea-Bissau: Military Command Claims Full Control of the State

U.S. Pressure for a Humanitarian Truce and the Rejected Political Proposal: Implications for the Sudan Conflict

Togo–Russia Strategic Engagement

Kenyan Government Targeted by White-Supremacist Defacement Attack: Coordinated Intrusion Disrupts State Digital Infrastructure

Sudan: Massive SAF Counter-Offensive in Kordofan Following RSF Push from Darfur

Mass Abduction in Kebbi and Heightened ISWAP Activity in Borno

Benin Raises the Alarm: 33 Vessels Illegally Sailing Under Its Flag

Jamil Mukulu on Trial: A Turning Point for Regional Counterterrorism and Transitional Justice in Central Africa

Early Warning: DRC – Kinshasa Periphery: Mobondo Threat Triggers N’Sele Park Closure; High Risk on the N’Sele–Kingakati Axis (8–9 Nov 2025)

Kidnapping Incident in Kobri, Mali on November 6, 2025

Western Sahara: Polisario Hardens Stance Following UN Resolution

Niger Security Report — IS Sahel Cross-Border Escalation & AES Posture

Burkina Faso Security Report — JNIM Escalation & Governance Risks

Mali Security Report — JNIM Fuel Blockade & Operational Advances

Tanzania Security Update: Low Turnout, Coercion Dynamics, and Post-Election Risk

Tanzania election — situation & security brief (Wed, 29 Oct 2025)

Mali’s Energy Collapse: Terrorist Blockades, Supply Breakdown, and the Strangling of a Nation

Sudan Crisis: RSF Captures El-Fasher, Pushing Darfur into Total Collapse

Nigeria Replaces Top Military Chiefs Amid Post-Plot Scrutiny

Côte d’Ivoire: Calm at the Polls as Ouattara’s Fourth Term Appears Certain

Early Warning: Escalating Crisis in Léré and Widening National Fuel Shortage Underscore Rising Operational Risks

Niger–Mali (AES): Security and Economic Coordination Moves Forward 

Mozambique: Government Suspends All Mining Licences in Manica Province 