Unilateral Ceasefire Declared by M23

Following the capture of Goma and the worsening humanitarian crisis, international pressure on the M23 is intensifying. This situation was foreseeable, necessitating a strategic approach after consolidating positions.

The cessation of hostilities has long been demanded by the international community and facilitators. Meanwhile, the situation in Sake was critical. Once control of Sake was secured, the temptation to seize Goma became almost irresistible due to its human and material resources. Knowing the weaknesses of the FARDC, the M23 exploited the situation to take control of Goma. It is not the city itself that interests them, but what it offers, as evidenced by the multiple consultations before appointing city officials.

Anticipating growing pressure and numerous crisis meetings, the rebels redeployed their troops to the north and south to hold the FARDC and declared a unilateral ceasefire, effective from Tuesday, February 4, 2025. They aim to secure the most favorable resolution from the international community. Simultaneously, this places the FARDC in a vulnerable position. President Félix Tshisekedi, having promised a vigorous response if hostilities resume, would bear the responsibility for the humanitarian crisis if they attacked the rebels.

This ceasefire clearly provides the M23 with an opportunity to regroup for future operations, and the FARDC should take advantage of it as well. Moreover, it enables M23's allies to distance themselves from responsibility during the upcoming crisis meeting organized by the EAC and SADC in Dar es Salaam. This becomes especially crucial if the FARDC, while on the offensive, provoke an M23 counterattack and are subsequently blamed for instigating the conflict. Sources close to the Congo River Alliance (M23) suggest that this unilateral ceasefire is merely a distraction.