African Security Analysis
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Strategic Interdiction of Fuel Supply Lines and Hostage Leverage by JNIM
On the morning of 29 January 2026, Mali experienced one of the most consequential jihadist operations of recent months, not due to its symbolic value, but because of its systemic strategic impact. A large fuel convoy originating from Senegal and transiting through western Mali along the Diboli–Kayes corridor was ambushed and neutralized by an estimated 100 fighters affiliated with Katiba Macina, a core component of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).
Niamey Airport Attack: Islamic State Claims Responsibility
Less than 48 hours after the assault on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey on 29 January 2026, the IS-Sahel formally claimed responsibility. ASA assesses this confirms the attack was not an isolated security breach, but a deliberate, high-value operation aimed at Niger’s military and strategic infrastructure.
United States–Africa: Washington Prepares a Strategic Summit on Critical Minerals
On 4 February, the United States will convene a ministerial-level summit on critical minerals with several African countries, including the DRC, Kenya, and Guinea.
DRC–Egypt Defence Axis: Kinshasa Deepens Strategic Military Partnerships Amid Accelerating Security Pressures
Kinshasa and Cairo have entered a new phase of strategic military cooperation at a time when Africa’s security environment is marked by persistent asymmetric threats, regional destabilization, and intensified competition for influence.
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South Sudan at the Brink of Relapse
South Sudan is no longer operating within the stabilizing logic of the 2018 R-ARCSS. The country has entered a pre-relapse phase, characterized by widespread armed mobilization, erosion of political trust, systematic weakening of opposition participation, and increasing tolerance for violence against civilians as a tactical instrument.
Libya at a Strategic Standstill
Libya remains locked in a protracted political and institutional stalemate, with rival authorities entrenched in competing governance structures and no credible pathway yet established toward national elections or unified state institutions.
Niger and Algeria Reignite Strategic Cooperation Around the Kafra Oil Block
Niger and Algeria have entered a new phase of strategic energy cooperation with the decision to relaunch joint hydrocarbon projects, placing the Kafra oil block in northern Niger at the centre of renewed bilateral engagement.
China–Africa Financial Relations Enter a Historic Reversal
Africa’s financial relationship with China has entered a new phase: net debt-related flows have turned negative—meaning African countries now pay more to China in principal and interest than they receive in new Chinese loan disbursements, according to ONE Data’s net-transfer analysis.
Western Sahara at a Strategic Crossroads
As Morocco Fails to Deliver a Credible Autonomy Plan, Washington May Impose a U.S.-Shaped Self-Determination Framework
Pay to Access | Zambia’s Ascending Role in the New Infrastructure and Influence Competition in Central & Southern Africa
Africa’s economic map is shifting. Two major transport corridors — Lobito to the Atlantic and Dar-es-Salaam to the Indian Ocean — are becoming central to the global energy transition.
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