African Security Analysis
We
de-risk
Africa
Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Drone Warfare Escalation and Systemic Collapse of Civilian Infrastructure
As of late March 2025, Sudan’s conflict has entered a decisive escalation phase characterized by intensified drone warfare, systematic targeting of civilian infrastructure, and increasing regional spillover.
JNIM Multi-Axis Offensive and Consolidation of Rural Dominance
As of 22–27 March 2026, Burkina Faso is experiencing a renewed wave of coordinated jihadist operations led by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), targeting multiple regions including the Sahel, Boucle du Mouhoun, and Centre-Nord.
Aviation System Under Shock — Jet Fuel Crisis and the Strait of Hormuz Dependency Trap
Africa’s aviation sector is currently experiencing the most severe fuel shock in its modern history, driven by the near-total disruption of jet fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Chad–Sudan Border Crisis: Drone Strike in Tiné and the Structural Spillover of the Sudan Conflict into Eastern Chad
The 18 March 2026 drone strike in Tiné, eastern Chad, represents a critical escalation in the cross-border dynamics of the Sudanese conflict. While tactically limited in scope, the attack signals a broader and more dangerous the progressive transformation of Chad’s eastern frontier into an active extension of the Darfur theatre.
Our Offers
ASA Situation Reports™
Lamu Port Emergence and the Strategic Rewiring of Trade Flows Under Hormuz Disruption
The recent surge in activity at Kenya’s Lamu Port illustrates a broader structural dynamic in global trade systems: disruption is not only a source of risk, but also a mechanism of rapid value reallocation.
Global Gold Market: Delayed Safe-Haven Dynamics and Implications for Africa’s Gold Economies
ASA assesses that recent gold-market behaviour during escalating US–Iran tensions suggests that gold did not function as an immediate safe haven in the initial phase of the shock. Instead, short-term price formation appears to have been shaped more strongly by dollar strength and interest-rate expectations than by geopolitical risk alone.
China–Africa: Han Zheng’s East and Southern Africa Tour and the Reconfiguration of Strategic Influence
The March 2026 diplomatic tour of Chinese Vice President Han Zheng across Kenya, South Africa, and the Seychelles represents a calibrated execution of Beijing’s post-FOCAC (Forum on China–Africa Cooperation) strategy, aimed at consolidating long-term influence across key African subregions.
Morocco: The Strategic Gateway — China’s Industrial Infiltration of Transatlantic Battery Supply Chains
Morocco has rapidly emerged as a central node in the restructuring of global electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chains, driven by a convergence of Chinese industrial capital, favourable trade architecture, and Western demand for supply diversification.
Zambia: Conditional Aid and the Strategic Repricing of Resource Sovereignty
Zambia has emerged as a focal point of a broader transformation in global resource geopolitics, where development assistance is increasingly embedded within strategic competition frameworks.
Mali: From Territorial Insurgency to Systemic Vulnerability
Mali is undergoing a structural transformation in which state stability is no longer anchored in territorial control, but in the ability to maintain systemic continuity under pressure.
We advise the leaders
Important decisions demand solid foundations, and that's what we provide. Over the years, we've earned the trust of current, former, and even aspiring presidents, alongside high-ranking military officials, CEOs, and NGOs— something we are deeply proud of.
As trusted advisors and analysts, we offer the critical insights and understanding these leaders need to navigate complex security environments. Through long-standing personal relationships, we've supported them for years, ensuring they have the right information to make informed and impactful decisions when it matters most.
Our clients
REQUEST FOR INTEREST
How can we help you de-risk Africa?
Please enter your contact information and your requirements and needs for us to come back to you with a relevant proposal.
