African Security Analysis
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Burkina Faso: Coup Rumours Expose a Sensitive Information Environment as Insurgent Pressure Persists
Burkina Faso’s security landscape remains defined by sustained extremist activity, constrained mobility, and a highly sensitive political information environment. The incident near the Presidency in Ouagadougou during the night of 28 Feb–1 Mar triggered rapid coup-related speculation, but subsequent indications suggest the episode may have been caused by electric vehicles catching fire in a presidential parking area, with battery explosions misinterpreted as gunfire.
Niger: Tahoua Airport Attack Signals Expanding Pressure on Niger’s Security Architecture
Niger’s security environment remains under sustained extremist pressure, with the Tillabéri, Tahoua, and Diffa regions exposed to different but mutually reinforcing threat patterns.
Border Disputes Drive Renewed Mano River Tensions
Renewed border incidents involving Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have exposed a fragile security environment along the Mano River frontier. What began as a series of localized disputes over military presence, border posts, flags, and sand extraction has widened into a broader test of sovereignty, border governance, local restraint, and regional crisis management.
Nigeria: Death of Brigadier-General O.O. Braimoh – Operational Failure, ISWAP Escalation, and Structural Vulnerabilities in the North-East Insurgency
The killing of Brigadier-General O.O. Braimoh, commander of the 29th Brigade under Operation HADIN KAI, during an ISWAP-led attack in Benisheikh, Borno State, on 9 April 2026, marks a significant operational and symbolic setback for the Nigerian military.
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ASA Situation Reports™
Access on Request | DRC – The Anatomy of a Security State in Structural Decline
This report provides an in-depth strategic assessment of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s accelerating sovereignty crisis from within—where the decisive risk is no longer only territorial loss in the east, but the erosion of command authority, fiscal control, and security governance across the state’s own architecture.
India–Africa Forum Summit IV: Strategic Partnership Reconfiguration and Geopolitical Positioning
The fourth India–Africa Forum Summit marks a significant moment in the reconfiguration of Africa’s external partnership landscape. Its importance extends beyond India–Africa relations alone.
Lake Chad Basin Pressure, Guinea-Bissau Political Fragility, and the Counter-Terrorism Architecture
The closing phase of the AU Peace and Security Council’s May 2026 programme brings together three connected pressures on Africa’s security architecture: the persistence of adaptive jihadist violence in the Lake Chad Basin, the fragile post-coup transition in Guinea-Bissau, and the need to recalibrate AU institutional instruments for counter-terrorism, early warning, and field coordination.
AU Peace and Security Architecture
The African Union’s peace and security architecture is entering a credibility test. The continent has built a sophisticated institutional framework for conflict prevention, crisis response, peace support operations, and regional security coordination.
Transnational Organised Crime in Africa
Transnational organised crime in Africa has moved beyond the category of secondary security concern. It is now a structural driver of conflict, institutional erosion, illicit political financing, and armed group resilience across multiple theatres.
AU Peace and Security Council — Nigeria’s Chairmanship, Climate-Security Nexus, and the Operational Gap
Nigeria’s assumption of the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) chairmanship in May 2026 brings forward an agenda of real strategic importance, but one constrained by familiar institutional limits.
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Important decisions demand solid foundations, and that's what we provide. Over the years, we've earned the trust of current, former, and even aspiring presidents, alongside high-ranking military officials, CEOs, and NGOs— something we are deeply proud of.
As trusted advisors and analysts, we offer the critical insights and understanding these leaders need to navigate complex security environments. Through long-standing personal relationships, we've supported them for years, ensuring they have the right information to make informed and impactful decisions when it matters most.
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