African Security Analysis
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Electoral Governance Report: January–June 2026 in Review
The PSC 28 July session on the AU Commission Chairperson's bi-annual electoral report — covering January to June 2026 and presenting the electoral calendar for the second half of the year — takes place in a continental electoral governance environment whose aggregate quality has declined relative to the standards that the AU's own normative framework establishes.
The Situation in Abyei: Deteriorating Security, Diplomatic Obstruction, and the Limits of PSC Authority
The PSC 8 July session on Abyei will be the first Council engagement with the situation in the disputed territory since the 1108th session of September 2022 — a gap of nearly four years that has allowed the security situation to deteriorate significantly in the absence of structured multilateral attention.
The Accra III Forum on Unconstitutional Changes of Government: Youth Inclusion and the Failure of Continental Norms
The Third Accra Reflection Forum on UCG, convening on 3 and 4 July in Accra, Ghana, under the theme Youth Inclusion for African Stability, takes place in a normative environment that its own convening history has failed to improve.
Uganda's PSC Chairpersonship: Institutional Context and Programme Architecture
Uganda assumes PSC chairpersonship for July 2026 with a programme of work that is structurally ambitious relative to the Council's demonstrated capacity for decisive institutional action.
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Central African Republic: Sanctions, Transition Risk and the Fragility of Consolidation
CAR has made real progress. The country has completed a combined electoral cycle, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has begun a third term, a new government and legislature are in place, and 1,331 former combatants have been disarmed and demobilised since July 2025.
Sudan: El Obeid, Drone Warfare and the Collapse of Civilian Protection
Sudan has entered the most dangerous phase of its war since fighting began in April 2023. The conflict between SAF and RSF has become a wider national crisis marked by state fragmentation, systematic violence against civilians, drone attacks on civilian infrastructure, the weaponisation of humanitarian access and the weakening of the institutions that once held the Sudanese state together.
African Ports: China, the Emirates and Europe Compete for Africa's Maritime Gateways
Africa's ports have become one of the most consequential theatres of global infrastructure competition in the twenty-first century. The contest now underway across the continent's maritime façades is not principally about trade facilitation or development financing.
Canada-Africa Business Conference in Lagos: Trade Diplomacy, Immigration Integrity, and the Unanswered Security Questions
The 6th Canada-Africa Business Conference opening in Lagos on 24 June 2026 arrives at a moment of genuine strategic recalibration in Canada's posture toward the African continent.
Central African Republic: Security Gains Remain Fragile as MINUSCA Enters a Risky Transition Phase
CAR is at an inflection point. The country has recorded measurable stabilisation gains over the past eighteen months — completed elections, partial disarmament progress, and renewed armed-group participation in the peace framework.
Eastern DRC: MONUSCO Constraints, Humanitarian Access and Ebola as a Security Multiplier
Eastern DRC is facing overlapping security, humanitarian and public health emergencies. MONUSCO remains the only large international civilian-protection instrument in the theatre, but its operational capacity has been weakened by financial constraints, movement restrictions, legitimacy erosion and an increasingly complex conflict environment.
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As trusted advisors and analysts, we offer the critical insights and understanding these leaders need to navigate complex security environments. Through long-standing personal relationships, we've supported them for years, ensuring they have the right information to make informed and impactful decisions when it matters most.
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