African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Gerald Group Regains Control of Soremi After Prolonged China National Gold Dispute
Gerald Group, a US-based metals trading and mining group, has regained control of the Soremi copper and zinc operation in M’Fouati, in the Republic of Congo, following a prolonged ownership dispute with China National Gold Group (CNG).
Russia–Africa Summit: Drone Threat and Operational Exposure in Moscow
The third Russia–Africa Summit is scheduled for Moscow on 28–29 Oct 2026. It will take place in a deteriorating security environment, marked by repeated long-range drone attacks against Moscow and other strategic locations in Russia.
Mali the Fall of Dioura and the Threat to Sevare
JNIM overran the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) camp at Dioura on 10 September 2026. Reporting published by AFP on 18 September, citing military, security and local sources, put the death toll at, at least 100 Malian soldiers and five Russian Africa Corps personnel.
EARLY WARNING Mali: Unconfirmed attack on Bamako’s northeastern approach
Reports circulating on local security monitoring accounts during the evening of 18 September indicate that an armed attack may have occurred near the Kasséla toll post, approximately 36 km northeast of Bamako.
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Ukraine in Mali External Military Assistance and Jihadist Risk
ASA assesses that Ukrainian training and operational assistance to northern Malian separatists is probable on the available reporting. The central strategic risk is that support intended to impose costs on Russian forces strengthens an armed partnership whose battlefield gains may also benefit JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Direct Ukrainian assistance to JNIM has not been established.
Russia and Togo – An Atlantic Gateway to the Sahel
ASA assesses that the proposed Russia–Togo transport corridor is likely to develop into a dual-purpose logistics route, supporting commercial trade while creating a more durable supply architecture for Russian security engagement in the central Sahel.
Russia–Africa Summit 2026: Strategic Signals, Partnerships and Emerging Risks
The third Russia–Africa Summit in Moscow will provide an important indication of how relations between Russia and African states have evolved since the previous summit in St Petersburg in 2023.
Central African Republic and the MINUSCA transition
CAR has made political and security gains that support a gradual transfer of responsibilities from the UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSCA.
Western Sahara and the October MINURSO renewal
Morocco enters the October mandate negotiations with a stronger diplomatic position, but that advantage has not produced an agreed settlement or restored the ceasefire.
Sudan and the 9 October sanctions deadline
Sudan’s sanctions deadline exposes a widening gap between the Security Council’s instruments and the war they are intended to constrain.
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