African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
RSF Capture of Al-Tina Escalates Darfur Control and Triggers Chad Border Closure
Sudan’s conflict has entered a new escalation phase following the RSF announced capture of the strategic border town of Al-Tina on February 21. The development consolidates RSF territorial dominance across much of Darfur and places paramilitary forces directly along the Chad–Sudan frontier.
Emergence of the “NFSL” Self-Defence Group Triggers Constitutional Alarm and Parliamentary Scrutiny in Liberia
The sudden emergence of the National Fula Security of Liberia (NFSL) has generated significant political and security concern in Liberia. The appearance of individuals in uniforms resembling official law enforcement attire—circulated widely through viral social media footage—has triggered institutional alarm in a country still marked by the legacy of civil conflict.
France–Algeria Security Reset
The visit of French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez to Algiers marks a calibrated but strategically meaningful reset in Franco-Algerian security relations. After months of diplomatic friction, the reactivation of operational channels reflects a shared recognition: Algeria remains an indispensable actor in the evolving Sahel–Mediterranean security architecture.
Sudan Conflict Update
Sudan’s conflict continues to evolve along three interlinked lines: (1) the SAF are expanding reliance on a broad ecosystem of allied armed groups and volunteer formations; (2) aerial and drone warfare in RSF-controlled areas is generating acute civilian harm and damaging survival-critical infrastructure; and (3) international actors are tightening targeted sanctions against RSF commanders accused of mass atrocities in Darfur, increasing the political cost of RSF leadership while producing limited immediate battlefield constraint.
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Legal Sovereignty Versus Geopolitical Transaction — Algeria and the Polisario Front Confront Washington’s Accelerated Mediation
Negotiations over Western Sahara have entered a decisive diplomatic phase in Washington following discreet preliminary consultations in Madrid. The United States appears intent on accelerating a political formula before May, reframing a decolonization dispute as a broader geopolitical and energy stabilization file.
Nigeria Finalizes $1.4 Billion Italian Airpower Acquisition
Nigeria has secured a $1.4 billion defence agreement with Italian aerospace firm Leonardo for the acquisition of approximately 24 M-346FA light combat aircraft and 10 AW-109 attack helicopters. Deliveries are scheduled throughout 2026.
Sudan Conflict Escalation Brief
The UK has imposed fresh sanctions on senior figures from both the SAF and the RSF, marking one of the clearest external acknowledgments yet that Sudan’s war is spiralling beyond conventional containment.
Horn of Africa Early Warning Report
The latest exchange between Ethiopia and Eritrea marks a dangerous shift from political tension to structured confrontation.
Diplomatic Friction After Eswatini Hosts Madagascar’s Ousted President
Relations between Eswatini and Madagascar’s military authorities have entered a tense phase following Eswatini’s decision to host ousted Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina last week.
Namibia Draws a Red Line: Sovereignty First in Offshore Oil Control
Namibia’s decision to refuse recognition of a major offshore stake acquisition by TotalEnergies and Petrobras signals a defining moment in the country’s emerging oil era. The government has declared the transaction invalid, citing failure to follow legally required approval procedures.
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