African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Ministerial Session on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Policy Coherence in a Deteriorating Threat Environment
The PSC's 21 July ministerial-level session on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism in Africa convenes at a moment when the continental terrorist threat has reached its most operationally advanced and geographically extensive state since the emergence of Sahelian jihadism in the early 2010s.
Anéfis Military Base Incident – Northern Mali
On July 4–5, 2026, the FLA claimed control of the Anéfis military base in northern Mali following heavy clashes with Malian Armed Forces and Russian Africa Corps personnel.
Electoral Governance Report: January–June 2026 in Review
The PSC 28 July session on the AU Commission Chairperson's bi-annual electoral report — covering January to June 2026 and presenting the electoral calendar for the second half of the year — takes place in a continental electoral governance environment whose aggregate quality has declined relative to the standards that the AU's own normative framework establishes.
The Situation in Abyei: Deteriorating Security, Diplomatic Obstruction, and the Limits of PSC Authority
The PSC 8 July session on Abyei will be the first Council engagement with the situation in the disputed territory since the 1108th session of September 2022 — a gap of nearly four years that has allowed the security situation to deteriorate significantly in the absence of structured multilateral attention.
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ASA Situation Reports™
Sudan and Darfur: ICC Accountability, Drone Atrocity, and the Impunity Engine
The ICC's semi-annual briefing to the Security Council in July 2026 takes place against a Sudan conflict environment that has crossed from crisis into what ASA assesses as a systematic atrocity industrialisation phase — one in which drone warfare against civilian populations, conflict-related sexual violence deployed as an ethnic and political weapon, and the deliberate elimination of accountability mechanisms have combined to produce a civilian protection catastrophe of the first magnitude.
West Africa and the Sahel: Threat and Strategic Risk Assessment
West Africa and the Sahel have entered a new phase of systemic risk in 2026. The deterioration is no longer limited to gradual jihadist expansion or isolated national crises.
Central African Republic: Am-Dafock Attack and the Risk of Sudan-Linked Rebel Reconfiguration
The attack on the village Am-Dafock in northeastern CAR on 30 June 2026 warrants classification as a strategically significant border-security incident rather than a routine armed-group engagement.
Central African Republic: Sanctions, Transition Risk and the Fragility of Consolidation
CAR has made real progress. The country has completed a combined electoral cycle, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has begun a third term, a new government and legislature are in place, and 1,331 former combatants have been disarmed and demobilised since July 2025.
Sudan: El Obeid, Drone Warfare and the Collapse of Civilian Protection
Sudan has entered the most dangerous phase of its war since fighting began in April 2023. The conflict between SAF and RSF has become a wider national crisis marked by state fragmentation, systematic violence against civilians, drone attacks on civilian infrastructure, the weaponisation of humanitarian access and the weakening of the institutions that once held the Sudanese state together.
African Ports: China, the Emirates and Europe Compete for Africa's Maritime Gateways
Africa's ports have become one of the most consequential theatres of global infrastructure competition in the twenty-first century. The contest now underway across the continent's maritime façades is not principally about trade facilitation or development financing.
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