African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Sudan: The Consolidation of Partition
Sudan's war is increasingly evolving from a contest for control of one state into the construction of two rival territorial and administrative orders. SAF hold the centre, east, and the Red Sea seat of government at Port Sudan.
The Central Sahel
The central Sahel has crossed a threshold that the vocabulary of "counter-terrorism" no longer captures. Al-Qaeda's regional affiliate, JNIM, and the ISSP now hold, between them, more territory than at any point since the 2012 Malian collapse — and JNIM has moved beyond attrition warfare into the deliberate substitution of the state, pairing military pressure with taxation, dispute adjudication, and service provision in the zones it controls.
Ministerial Session on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Policy Coherence in a Deteriorating Threat Environment
The PSC's 21 July ministerial-level session on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism in Africa convenes at a moment when the continental terrorist threat has reached its most operationally advanced and geographically extensive state since the emergence of Sahelian jihadism in the early 2010s.
Anéfis Military Base Incident – Northern Mali
On July 4–5, 2026, the FLA claimed control of the Anéfis military base in northern Mali following heavy clashes with Malian Armed Forces and Russian Africa Corps personnel.
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ASA Situation Reports™
South Sudan – An Election Scheduled on a Dismantled Agreement: The December 2026 Vote as a Legitimacy Risk
South Sudan is being steered toward a December 2026 election while the political and institutional foundations of the 2018 R-ARCSS are being progressively weakened.
West Africa at a Crossroads: Bassirou Diomaye Faye's ECOWAS Chairmanship and the Test of Regional Cohesion
The appointment of Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye as Chairperson of ECOWAS arrives at a moment of acute institutional stress for the regional organisation.
Mali Report Part 3 | Mali Between Sovereignty and Dependency: Russia’s Role in the Sahel Security Crisis
Mali’s transition from French security partnership to Russian military dependency has not resolved the country’s crisis. It has changed its character.
Mali Report Part 2 | Anéfis–Tabankort Axis: Convoy Interdiction and the Battle for Northern Mobility
The fighting around Anéfis has evolved from a localized base incident into a wider battle over movement and reinforcement along the Gao–Tabankort–Anéfis axis. The central question is no longer only whether FLA or government-aligned forces control the Anéfis base.
Mali Report Part 1 | Mali’s Corridor War: Anéfis, Russian Dependency and the Fragmentation of State Authority
Mali’s conflict is entering a more dangerous phase. The July 2026 attacks, including the battle around Anéfis, show that armed groups are no longer only contesting towns or military bases.
Sudan and Darfur: ICC Accountability, Drone Atrocity, and the Impunity Engine
The ICC's semi-annual briefing to the Security Council in July 2026 takes place against a Sudan conflict environment that has crossed from crisis into what ASA assesses as a systematic atrocity industrialisation phase — one in which drone warfare against civilian populations, conflict-related sexual violence deployed as an ethnic and political weapon, and the deliberate elimination of accountability mechanisms have combined to produce a civilian protection catastrophe of the first magnitude.
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