African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Sudan: The Consolidation of Partition
Sudan's war is increasingly evolving from a contest for control of one state into the construction of two rival territorial and administrative orders. SAF hold the centre, east, and the Red Sea seat of government at Port Sudan.
The Central Sahel
The central Sahel has crossed a threshold that the vocabulary of "counter-terrorism" no longer captures. Al-Qaeda's regional affiliate, JNIM, and the ISSP now hold, between them, more territory than at any point since the 2012 Malian collapse — and JNIM has moved beyond attrition warfare into the deliberate substitution of the state, pairing military pressure with taxation, dispute adjudication, and service provision in the zones it controls.
Ministerial Session on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Policy Coherence in a Deteriorating Threat Environment
The PSC's 21 July ministerial-level session on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism in Africa convenes at a moment when the continental terrorist threat has reached its most operationally advanced and geographically extensive state since the emergence of Sahelian jihadism in the early 2010s.
Anéfis Military Base Incident – Northern Mali
On July 4–5, 2026, the FLA claimed control of the Anéfis military base in northern Mali following heavy clashes with Malian Armed Forces and Russian Africa Corps personnel.
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ASA Situation Reports™
South Sudan – A Fixed Election Date on a Collapsing Agreement: Elections as Deadline, Not Destination
South Sudan now has a fixed election date but remains far from meeting many of the political, administrative, security and humanitarian conditions required for a credible national vote.
Libya – The Oil-for-Unity Bargain: A US-Brokered Elite Settlement, the UN Framework, and the Choice Facing the Security Council
Libya's five-year institutional stalemate is being acted upon by a new variable: a reported United States mediation effort centred on a specific redistribution of executive power.
Russia's Guinea-Bissau Opening: Emerging Strategic Value on the Atlantic–Sahel Axis
Guinea-Bissau is an emerging node of Russian interest, not a Russian strategic hub. The evidence warrants monitoring possible convergence among diplomacy, mineral investment, infrastructure and Sahel connectivity; it does not show that an integrated Atlantic–Sahel military-logistics corridor exists or has been agreed.
Silencing the Guns by 2030 – An Ambition at Its Midpoint: Measuring a Continental Agenda Against a Worsening Conflict Burden
The STG initiative is at the midpoint of its extended 2020–2030 horizon. The central finding of this assessment is that Africa's aggregate conflict burden has not declined in line with the initiative's ambition and, in several major theatres, has worsened.
South Sudan – An Election Scheduled on a Dismantled Agreement: The December 2026 Vote as a Legitimacy Risk
South Sudan is being steered toward a December 2026 election while the political and institutional foundations of the 2018 R-ARCSS are being progressively weakened.
West Africa at a Crossroads: Bassirou Diomaye Faye's ECOWAS Chairmanship and the Test of Regional Cohesion
The appointment of Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye as Chairperson of ECOWAS arrives at a moment of acute institutional stress for the regional organisation.
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