Attacks Target Security Forces in Somalia
Banaadir:
On 11th February 2025, Al-Shabaab forces carried out a bomb attack targeting apostate militias stationed in Gubta, specifically in the Tiida area. The attack resulted in the death of one soldier, identified as Indhoos, and left two others wounded.
Lower Shabelle:
Same night, Al-Shabaab forces launched a heavy assault on an African Union military base located in Golweyn, near Buulo Mareer. The extent of the damage and casualties remainscurrently unclear.
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Sudan: The Consolidation of Partition
Sudan's war is increasingly evolving from a contest for control of one state into the construction of two rival territorial and administrative orders. SAF hold the centre, east, and the Red Sea seat of government at Port Sudan.
The Central Sahel
The central Sahel has crossed a threshold that the vocabulary of "counter-terrorism" no longer captures. Al-Qaeda's regional affiliate, JNIM, and the ISSP now hold, between them, more territory than at any point since the 2012 Malian collapse — and JNIM has moved beyond attrition warfare into the deliberate substitution of the state, pairing military pressure with taxation, dispute adjudication, and service provision in the zones it controls.
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