Strategic Ops Report – Military Operations Against ADF/ISCAP in Mambasa Territory, Ituri (DRC)

Operational Context:

In the context of ongoing joint operations against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF/ISCAP), the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) and the Ugandan People's Defence Forces (UPDF) launched a direct offensive targeting the village of Bakwanza, identified by credible intelligence as the probable headquarters of insurgent leader Musa Baluku. This strategic location was defended by three peripheral insurgent camps, forming a robust defensive perimeter designed to prevent direct assaults.

Initial Tactical Developments:

On Sunday, July 6, FARDC-UPDF coalition forces initiated a significant bombardment campaign targeting insurgent positions within the forested area of Lolwa, situated in the Mambasa territory. The military objectives were clearly defined: neutralize forward ADF/ISCAP positions, disrupt enemy supply lines, and isolate the insurgent command structure ahead of the main ground offensive.

ASA Strategic Observations – Identified Operational Shortcomings:

However, according to verified information from African Security Analysis (ASA) field analysts, critical elements of the planned military strategy remained incomplete between July 7 and July 9. These operational gaps potentially facilitated insurgent movements and diminished the effectiveness of coalition operations. ASA has specifically identified the following strategic shortcomings:

• Delayed Securing of Key Strategic Perimeter:
  FARDC-UPDF forces tasked with securing the area near Lwemba village (about 26 kilometres), designed to intercept insurgent routes originating from Ilake, had not been adequately deployed during this critical timeframe.
• Absence of Simultaneous Deployment on Secondary Axes:
  Military units intended to deploy concurrently along critical access routes, notably along the Ituri and Samboko rivers, as well as along the tactical axis connecting Kazaroho to Bwanasura (Walese Vukuntu grouping), had similarly failed to deploy as initially planned. This gap likely allowed insurgents opportunities for repositioning and withdrawal.

Direct Engagement and Insurgent Evasion:

On Tuesday, July 8, a brief but intense firefight occurred between FARDC-UPDF forces and ADF/ISCAP insurgents at the "Tapis Rouge" encampment, located several kilometres from Butani. This encampment historically functioned as an advanced defensive line, intended to protect insurgent access routes toward Musa Baluku’s presumed headquarters.

Despite these engagements, previously identified strategic shortcomings appear to have enabled insurgent leader Musa Baluku to successfully evade capture. According to ASA’s verified intelligence, on Friday, July 11 at 20:00 (local time), Musa Baluku managed to cross National Route No.4, circumventing established military checkpoints and moving toward the insurgent-held encampment known as Mungu Iko, located northeast of the village of Mambelenga. This encampment, previously a Chinese-operated quarry, now serves as a critical strategic fallback position for insurgents, providing optimal logistical and operational advantages against ongoing military pressure.

Recent developments underscore the significant operational complexity faced by coalition forces, highlighting persistent insurgent mobility, agility, and their ability to exploit strategic and tactical weaknesses. To achieve sustained success against the ADF/ISCAP threat, FARDC-UPDF forces must urgently address these highlighted operational shortcomings. Immediate improvements to deployment timelines, perimeter control, and intelligence responsiveness will prove essential.

African Security Analysis (ASA) reiterates its ongoing commitment and stands ready to continue providing timely, reliable, and independent strategic insights. ASA remains fully available and prepared to offer its services, expertise, and analytical support to military planners and policymakers, aiming to enhance operational effectiveness and ensure sustainable security outcomes across the region.