Sudan: Massive SAF Counter-Offensive in Kordofan Following RSF Push from Darfur

Executive Overview

Sudan’s conflict has entered a critical phase as the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched a significant counter-offensive west of El Obeid, following the failure of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacks the previous day. The fighting—characterized by large pick-up convoys and mechanized thrusts—illustrates the intensifying struggle for control of central and western Kordofan, now the main strategic theatre after the fall of Al-Fashir.

The RSF, reinforced by fighters and supplies reportedly routed from Al-Fashir through southern Libya with UAE logistical support, is attempting to encircle and destroy key SAF divisions in Babanusa, Kadugli, and Dilling. Despite these efforts, today’s clashes indicate that SAF has temporarily regained momentum.

Current Battlefield Dynamics

Large-Scale SAF Counter-Push Near El Obeid

Today, SAF mobilized hundreds of pick-ups and technicals, pushing westward through Sahel terrain northwest of El Obeid. Visual evidence circulating on Sudanese networks confirms:

• Coordinated mechanized formations
• Sustained fire superiority
• RSF withdrawal under heavy losses (multiple destroyed pick-ups)

These engagements follow the collapse of RSF assaults on SAF positions the day prior.

RSF Strategic Redeployments

After seizing Al-Fashir—Darfur’s de facto capital—the RSF is redeploying combat elements toward Kordofan to capture remaining SAF strongholds. Their apparent objectives:

1. Capture the encircled 22nd Infantry Division

2. Take the 89th Brigade headquarters in Babanusa

3. Cut the logistical corridor feeding El Obeid

4. Secure western Kordofan gold-mining belts used for smuggling and arms procurement

Despite heavy pressure, SAF defensive positions in Babanusa have held.

Secondary Fronts: Kadugli, Dilling, and SPLM-N Involvement

Escalation in Southern Kordofan

Parallel clashes are occurring around:

• Kadugli (14th Division)
• Dilling (54th Brigade)

Both SAF units remain under partial siege, with supply lines increasingly vulnerable.

SPLM-N's Controversial Alliance with RSF

The SPLM-N (Abdelaziz Al-Hilu faction)—previously neutral or opposed to both sides—has aligned operationally with the RSF under the Tassis Alliance. Characteristics:

• Controls major areas of the Nuba Mountains
• Highly organized conventional insurgent force
• Launches independent offensives against SAF

This alliance marks a historic shift, widening the war and complicating future negotiation dynamics.

Darfuri Rebel Groups Split

• SLA-MM and JEM have joined SAF under the label “Joint Darfur Forces”
• Many units suffered losses in Al-Fashir
• Fragmentation increases unpredictability on both sides

Strategic Importance of El Obeid

El Obeid remains the central prize for both factions due to its strategic functions:

National and Regional Significance

• Junction city linking Khartoum–Omdurman to western theatre
• Core of Sudan’s internal supply networks
• The central hub of Sudan’s petroleum transport system
• 94% of South Sudan’s oil passes through pipelines near El Obeid en route to the Red Sea

Blocking this axis would paralyze both the Sudanese economy and SAF mobility.

RSF Motivations: Gold and Arms Smuggling

RSF forces maintain heavy resistance west of El Obeid to protect lucrative:

• Artisanal and semi-industrial gold mines,
• Located 50–100 km from the highway,
• Essential to the RSF’s arms procurement pipeline through UAE networks.

SAF Advances Toward Abu Sunun

Recent SAF gains around Abu Sunun hills mark a turning point:

• High ground now under SAF control
• Allows artillery overwatch for western approaches to El Obeid
• Creates a defensive shield against future RSF incursions

Operational Outlook

SAF Strengths

• Momentum regained on the western front
• Territorial advantage around key highlands
• Support from Joint Darfur Forces consolidating defensive lines

SAF Weaknesses

• Fragmented chain of command
• Over-reliance on pick-up-based mobile warfare
• Supply vulnerabilities on the Omdurman–El Obeid axis

RSF Strengths

• Reinforcements from Al-Fashir
• Continued UAE and Libyan logistical channels
• Coordination with SPLM-N creating multi-front pressure

RSF Weaknesses

• Heavy losses in mechanized assets
• Inability to break SAF strongholds
• Overextension across Kordofan and Darfur

African Security Analysis (ASA) Assessment

1. The fall of El Obeid would be catastrophic, both strategically and economically, for SAF.

2. RSF’s current priority is clearly to:

• cut off El Obeid,
• surround remaining SAF divisions,
• secure gold corridors.

3. SAF’s latest counter-push suggests that the army still maintains operational coherence despite earlier setbacks.

4. The alliance with SPLM-N may transform the war from a two-actor conflict into a multi-front insurgent coalition, complicating any future peace talks.

Conclusion

The Kordofan theatre is now the decisive front of Sudan’s civil war. The SAF’s successful counter-offensive today temporarily stabilizes the situation around El Obeid, but the RSF’s strategic depth—fed by Darfur reinforcements, Libyan corridors, and gold revenues—ensures that fighting will intensify in the coming weeks.

Control of Babanusa, Kadugli, Dilling, and especially El Obeid will determine the balance of power for the next phase of the conflict. The SAF victory at Abu Sunun is significant, but unless the Omdurman–El Obeid Road is reopened, sustained operations will remain constrained.

ASA will continue to monitor battlefield dynamics, logistical routes, and indicators of further RSF–SPLM-N coordination.