Conflict in Sudan between the SAF and RSF has escalated
The ongoing conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has escalated, with the SAF making significant territorial gains, including the recapture of Wad Madani. The city's strategic importance has made its loss a severe blow to the RSF, further compounded by the defection of a high-ranking RSF commander, Abuagla Keikal. The SAF has also made progress in Khartoum and Omdurman, though civilians continue to suffer from indiscriminate violence involving various forms of remote warfare. Over 120 civilians were recently killed in Omdurman, highlighting the devastating impact of the conflict on non-combatants.
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Benin: Northern Attacks, Fuel Pressure, and Regional Security Cooperation Define the Incoming Government’s Stability Challenge
Benin is entering a more difficult security and economic phase. The March attacks in Alibori and Atacora confirm that JNIM remains capable of striking Beninese military positions, seizing equipment, and operating across border areas linked to Niger, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria.
Mali: Humanitarian Flight Suspension and Expanding Extremist Pressure Signal a Deteriorating National Security Environment
Mali’s security environment is no longer defined by isolated insurgent pressure in the north and centre. The pattern now points to a wider national threat picture: JNIM continues to shape conditions in central and northern Mali while pushing deeper into the south and west; ISSP remains active in Gao and Ménaka; northern armed groups retain the ability to challenge Malian military positions; and humanitarian access is increasingly vulnerable to state-imposed restrictions as well as armed-group pressure.
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