Conflict in Sudan between the SAF and RSF has escalated
The ongoing conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has escalated, with the SAF making significant territorial gains, including the recapture of Wad Madani. The city's strategic importance has made its loss a severe blow to the RSF, further compounded by the defection of a high-ranking RSF commander, Abuagla Keikal. The SAF has also made progress in Khartoum and Omdurman, though civilians continue to suffer from indiscriminate violence involving various forms of remote warfare. Over 120 civilians were recently killed in Omdurman, highlighting the devastating impact of the conflict on non-combatants.
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Sudan: The Consolidation of Partition
Sudan's war is increasingly evolving from a contest for control of one state into the construction of two rival territorial and administrative orders. SAF hold the centre, east, and the Red Sea seat of government at Port Sudan.
The Central Sahel
The central Sahel has crossed a threshold that the vocabulary of "counter-terrorism" no longer captures. Al-Qaeda's regional affiliate, JNIM, and the ISSP now hold, between them, more territory than at any point since the 2012 Malian collapse — and JNIM has moved beyond attrition warfare into the deliberate substitution of the state, pairing military pressure with taxation, dispute adjudication, and service provision in the zones it controls.
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