Prison Break in Maputo
Mozambique is facing a severe crisis, marked by a large-scale prison escape, violent unrest, and contested presidential election results. The escape of between 2,500 to 6,000 inmates from a high-security prison in Matola today highlights the critical vulnerabilities in the country’s security forces.
This event is indicative of a larger issue—a state struggling to maintain control over its institutions and territory. The ease with which prisoners overpowered guards and seized their weapons raises troubling concerns about the capacity of Mozambique's security forces and the integrity of its prison system.
The violent unrest that erupted in Maputo, sparked by disputed election results, has laid bare deep-rooted tensions and divisions within the nation. The opposition's allegations of election rigging, coupled with the ruling party's refusal to concede, have created a highly charged environment, leaving many citizens feeling disenfranchised and disillusioned.
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Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion
Guinea has entered a new phase following the conclusion of elections that formalize the transition initiated after the September 2021 removal of President Alpha Condé. With President Mamadi Doumbouya consolidating authority and Prime Minister Amadou Bah Oury forming a new cabinet on February 4, 2026, the administration’s immediate task is clear: translate strong extractive-sector expansion into tangible improvements in living standards.
South Africa Signs CAEPA With China and Accedes to AfrEximBank
Pretoria’s recent economic announcements include (1) the signing of the China–Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (CAEPA) in Beijing on 6 February, and (2) formal accession to AfrEximBank on 4 February, alongside an $8 billion country programme.
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