
Goma–Gisenyi Border Goes 24/7, Signalling Power Shifts
Rwandan authorities and the AFC/M23-run administration in Goma will restore around-the-clock crossings at the Goma–Gisenyi frontier. Closed outright when M23 seized Goma on January 27, the border later reopened with limited hours—first until 15:00, then 18:00, but never operated overnight until now.
This decision reflects Kigali’s confidence in AFC/ M23’s grip on Goma and marks a de facto partnership: joint customs protocols, coordinated security patrols and shared health inspections imply that Rwandan agencies recognize the rebel administration as a local authority. Economically, full access should relieve traders, commuters and aid convoys of persistent bottlenecks, stabilizing supplies of perishables, fuel and essential goods on both sides of Lake Kivu.
Politically, however, direct engagement with AFC/M23 threatens to erode Kinshasa’s sovereignty and sets a precedent for other non-state actors in eastern DRC to negotiate independently with neighbouring capitals—further fragmenting central authority. Simultaneously, former President Joseph Kabila has held consultations in Bukavu to gauge local viewpoints on stabilization. According to on-the-ground information gathered by African Security Analysis, Belgium sought talks with him to harmonize positions on eastern DRC, but Kabila has remained unavailable—underscoring the fragmented authority in Kinshasa.
Discover More
Sudan: The Consolidation of Partition
Sudan's war is increasingly evolving from a contest for control of one state into the construction of two rival territorial and administrative orders. SAF hold the centre, east, and the Red Sea seat of government at Port Sudan.
The Central Sahel
The central Sahel has crossed a threshold that the vocabulary of "counter-terrorism" no longer captures. Al-Qaeda's regional affiliate, JNIM, and the ISSP now hold, between them, more territory than at any point since the 2012 Malian collapse — and JNIM has moved beyond attrition warfare into the deliberate substitution of the state, pairing military pressure with taxation, dispute adjudication, and service provision in the zones it controls.
REQUEST FOR INTEREST
How can we help you de-risk Africa?
Please enter your contact information and your requirements and needs for us to come back to you with a relevant proposal.


