Goma–Gisenyi Border Goes 24/7, Signalling Power Shifts
Rwandan authorities and the AFC/M23-run administration in Goma will restore around-the-clock crossings at the Goma–Gisenyi frontier. Closed outright when M23 seized Goma on January 27, the border later reopened with limited hours—first until 15:00, then 18:00, but never operated overnight until now.
This decision reflects Kigali’s confidence in AFC/ M23’s grip on Goma and marks a de facto partnership: joint customs protocols, coordinated security patrols and shared health inspections imply that Rwandan agencies recognize the rebel administration as a local authority. Economically, full access should relieve traders, commuters and aid convoys of persistent bottlenecks, stabilizing supplies of perishables, fuel and essential goods on both sides of Lake Kivu.
Politically, however, direct engagement with AFC/M23 threatens to erode Kinshasa’s sovereignty and sets a precedent for other non-state actors in eastern DRC to negotiate independently with neighbouring capitals—further fragmenting central authority. Simultaneously, former President Joseph Kabila has held consultations in Bukavu to gauge local viewpoints on stabilization. According to on-the-ground information gathered by African Security Analysis, Belgium sought talks with him to harmonize positions on eastern DRC, but Kabila has remained unavailable—underscoring the fragmented authority in Kinshasa.
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Côte d’Ivoire–Burkina Faso Border Tensions Following the Arrest of Five Ivorian Gendarmes by the VDP
On 21 June 2025, five Ivorian gendarmes were detained by Burkina Faso’s Volunteer Defence of the Homeland (VDP) militia near the shared frontier. This confrontation underscored the porous nature of the approximately 600-kilometer border, the dangers inherent in relying on unregulated auxiliary forces, and the glaring absence of an effective bilateral crisis-management mechanism.
Eastern DRC: M23/AFC Preparing Major Demonstration of Force
According to confidential assessments gathered by African Security Analysis, rebel forces of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) and M23 are preparing a large-scale demonstration of force in eastern DRC. The operation is expected to involve approximately 5,000 newly trained combatants, all recently graduated from military training camps in Rumangabo, a stronghold under rebel control.
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