
Goma–Gisenyi Border Goes 24/7, Signalling Power Shifts
Rwandan authorities and the AFC/M23-run administration in Goma will restore around-the-clock crossings at the Goma–Gisenyi frontier. Closed outright when M23 seized Goma on January 27, the border later reopened with limited hours—first until 15:00, then 18:00, but never operated overnight until now.
This decision reflects Kigali’s confidence in AFC/ M23’s grip on Goma and marks a de facto partnership: joint customs protocols, coordinated security patrols and shared health inspections imply that Rwandan agencies recognize the rebel administration as a local authority. Economically, full access should relieve traders, commuters and aid convoys of persistent bottlenecks, stabilizing supplies of perishables, fuel and essential goods on both sides of Lake Kivu.
Politically, however, direct engagement with AFC/M23 threatens to erode Kinshasa’s sovereignty and sets a precedent for other non-state actors in eastern DRC to negotiate independently with neighbouring capitals—further fragmenting central authority. Simultaneously, former President Joseph Kabila has held consultations in Bukavu to gauge local viewpoints on stabilization. According to on-the-ground information gathered by African Security Analysis, Belgium sought talks with him to harmonize positions on eastern DRC, but Kabila has remained unavailable—underscoring the fragmented authority in Kinshasa.
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Ethiopia at the Brink: The Return of War in Tigray and the Eritrean Dimension
Ethiopia is in the early stages of what may become its most dangerous security crisis since the 2020–2022 Tigray war. In late September, the TPLF announced a "defensive war" alongside six other armed groups under the banner of the Alliance for Survival coalition, seeking the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Renewed Jihadist Rivalry Threatens to Reshape the Eastern Sahel
Renewed fighting between JNIM and ISSP around Tessit in eastern Mali and Oudalan province in northern Burkina Faso signals a potentially significant escalation in the struggle for control of the tri-border region.
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