
Severe Penalties for Burundian Soldiers Refusing to Fight M23
On February 6, 2025, 272 Burundian soldiers were sentenced for refusing to fight alongside FARDC against M23. The sentences range from four years in prison to life, with the possibility of appeal within two months. The soldiers were classified into four categories according to their mode of return to Burundi:
1. First category: first-class soldiers and corporals who returned by plane, sentenced to four years in prison.
2. Second category: corporals and non-commissioned officers repatriated by plane, sentenced to five years in prison.
3. Third category: first-class soldiers and corporals repatriated by boat, sentenced to ten years in prison.
4. Fourth category: corporals and non-commissioned officers who arrived by boat, sentenced to life imprisonment.
One soldier was sentenced to one year in prison. Currently detained in the central prison of Murembwe in Rumonge, they were previously incarcerated in Ruyigi, Bururi, and Rumonge. The Burundian army is engaged in the war against M23 in North Kivu, alongside FARDC and local militias, under a bilateral partnership. Despite criticisms, President Évariste Ndayishimiye defends this mission.
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Strategic Interdiction of Fuel Supply Lines and Hostage Leverage by JNIM
On the morning of 29 January 2026, Mali experienced one of the most consequential jihadist operations of recent months, not due to its symbolic value, but because of its systemic strategic impact. A large fuel convoy originating from Senegal and transiting through western Mali along the Diboli–Kayes corridor was ambushed and neutralized by an estimated 100 fighters affiliated with Katiba Macina, a core component of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).
Niamey Airport Attack: Islamic State Claims Responsibility
Less than 48 hours after the assault on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey on 29 January 2026, the IS-Sahel formally claimed responsibility. ASA assesses this confirms the attack was not an isolated security breach, but a deliberate, high-value operation aimed at Niger’s military and strategic infrastructure.
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