
Severe Penalties for Burundian Soldiers Refusing to Fight M23
On February 6, 2025, 272 Burundian soldiers were sentenced for refusing to fight alongside FARDC against M23. The sentences range from four years in prison to life, with the possibility of appeal within two months. The soldiers were classified into four categories according to their mode of return to Burundi:
1. First category: first-class soldiers and corporals who returned by plane, sentenced to four years in prison.
2. Second category: corporals and non-commissioned officers repatriated by plane, sentenced to five years in prison.
3. Third category: first-class soldiers and corporals repatriated by boat, sentenced to ten years in prison.
4. Fourth category: corporals and non-commissioned officers who arrived by boat, sentenced to life imprisonment.
One soldier was sentenced to one year in prison. Currently detained in the central prison of Murembwe in Rumonge, they were previously incarcerated in Ruyigi, Bururi, and Rumonge. The Burundian army is engaged in the war against M23 in North Kivu, alongside FARDC and local militias, under a bilateral partnership. Despite criticisms, President Évariste Ndayishimiye defends this mission.
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Sudan Conflict Update
Sudan’s conflict continues to evolve along three interlinked lines: (1) the SAF are expanding reliance on a broad ecosystem of allied armed groups and volunteer formations; (2) aerial and drone warfare in RSF-controlled areas is generating acute civilian harm and damaging survival-critical infrastructure; and (3) international actors are tightening targeted sanctions against RSF commanders accused of mass atrocities in Darfur, increasing the political cost of RSF leadership while producing limited immediate battlefield constraint.
Guinea’s New Government and the Structural Test of Mining-Led Expansion
Guinea has entered a new phase following the conclusion of elections that formalize the transition initiated after the September 2021 removal of President Alpha Condé. With President Mamadi Doumbouya consolidating authority and Prime Minister Amadou Bah Oury forming a new cabinet on February 4, 2026, the administration’s immediate task is clear: translate strong extractive-sector expansion into tangible improvements in living standards.
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