Mounting Tensions in Eastern DRC Disrupt SAMIDRC Withdrawal Framework
The security environment in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), continues to deteriorate, significantly complicating the planned drawdown of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC). Initially structured around an air evacuation from Goma Airport, the withdrawal will now proceed by road through Rwanda to Chato, Tanzania, due to renewed fighting and the closure of air access routes.
This revised approach was agreed upon during a strategic meeting on 11 April in Dar es Salaam, which brought together the Chiefs of Defence from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi—the three troop-contributing countries to SAMIDRC. The SADC Secretariat is engaging Rwandan authorities to ensure safe and unimpeded transit.
SAMIDRC accused by M23
According to African Security Analysis (ASA), recent offensives launched by the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), supported by Wazalendo militias, have dislodged M23/Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) from several key positions, leading to renewed instability around Goma. In reaction, M23 has accused SAMIDRC of participating in joint operations—allegations which have since been publicly refuted.
On 14 April, the Southern African Development Community issued an official statement from its headquarters in Gaborone, Botswana, addressing the accusations made by M23 in a 12 April communiqué. “SADC firmly refutes these allegations. SAMIDRC has not participated in any joint operations as claimed. These assertions are both inaccurate and misleading,” the statement read. It further emphasized that SAMIDRC is implementing a structured and coordinated withdrawal in line with directives from the SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government and reaffirmed the organization’s commitment to the agreement reached with M23 leadership on 28 March in Goma.
SADC also called on all stakeholders to refrain from disseminating misinformation and to act in a manner that promotes stability and de-escalation.
Independent analysts have echoed SADC’s position. Darren Olivier, Director of the African Defence Review, stated that there is no verifiable evidence supporting M23’s claims. “Our sources confirm that SAMIDRC troops remain confined to their bases in Goma and Sake, with only limited logistical movement,” he said. Olivier suggested that the accusations may be an attempt to pressure SADC or influence the regional diplomatic landscape.
He also described M23’s demand that MONUSCO hand over FARDC personnel reportedly sheltering in its facilities as “unrealistic and provocative,” potentially signalling a risk of future tensions involving the UN peacekeeping mission.
M23 has blocked off access to Goma
ASA can further report that M23/AFC has positioned anti-aircraft systems on Mont Goma Hill and blocked major access routes around Goma, effectively sealing off the area. Although M23 is currently allowing the removal of SAMIDRC equipment, this arrangement remains unstable. The overland route through Rwanda presents significant logistical and security obstacles and was not part of the mission’s original extraction plan.
While there have been modest improvements in logistical support to SAMIDRC personnel in recent weeks, their situation remains tenuous. Surrounded by M23 and Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF), the troops are vulnerable to further escalation. Analysts believe that M23’s actions may be aimed at consolidating military and political control over Goma, particularly ahead of expected visits by Congolese opposition figures who have expressed concerns about their security in the city.
With SADC’s formal response now on record, the regional body has reiterated its commitment to a peaceful and diplomatic resolution. Nonetheless, the viability of a safe and orderly SAMIDRC withdrawal remains uncertain.
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A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
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