Sudan Crisis: RSF Captures El-Fasher, Pushing Darfur into Total Collapse

Power Shift in Darfur

On October 26, 2025, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) announced the capture of El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, after more than a year of siege.
The group released images online showing its fighters inside the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) headquarters, claiming full control of the city.
Though the SAF has yet to officially acknowledge defeat, field communications confirm the loss of key command centres and ongoing resistance in isolated pockets of the city.

If verified, this event marks the collapse of the SAF’s last major position in Darfur, giving the RSF unchallenged authority over the entire region.

The Siege Breaks

El-Fasher had been surrounded for over 12 months, with repeated RSF offensives cutting off supply routes and humanitarian access.
The city’s fall followed sustained artillery bombardments and the withdrawal of overstretched SAF units toward central Sudan.
Witnesses report intense street battles near Al-Matar and Tawila Road, where several senior officers were killed, including:

• Major General Mohammed Ahmed El-Khadr, commander of the 6th Division.
• Colonel Ahmed Hussein Mustafa, the army’s official spokesperson.

Their deaths underscore a devastating breakdown of leadership within the Sudanese military command in western Sudan.

Reports of Atrocities

Despite RSF claims of restraint and promises to open humanitarian corridors, disturbing footage continues to surface showing summary executions, looting, and assaults on civilians.
These alleged acts mirror previous RSF abuses documented in Geneina and Ardamata, where large-scale atrocities occurred after similar captures.

The United Nations has demanded immediate safe passage for civilians and an investigation into reported war crimes.
However, field testimonies indicate that RSF fighters and allied militias remain active in residential areas, preventing most civilians from escaping.

Humanitarian Freefall

Approximately 260,000 civilians remain trapped inside El-Fasher with no access to food, water, or medical care.
Hospitals have run out of basic supplies, and humanitarian convoys have been blocked since early September.
Thousands are now attempting to flee toward Zamzam, Kutum, and the Chadian border, though many routes remain mined or under RSF control.

Field sources describe widespread hunger and disease outbreaks, with the city nearing a complete humanitarian collapse within days.
The population is effectively caught between two warring forces — and neither side is prioritizing civilian protection.

Military Consequences

The fall of El-Fasher delivers a decisive strategic blow to the Sudanese Armed Forces.
It provides Hemedti’s RSF with control of western supply lines into Libya and Chad, opening corridors for weapons, fuel, and cross-border trade.
For General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the SAF leader now confined to Port Sudan, the loss signals isolation and strategic encirclement.

With the RSF now in control of every major Darfur capital, Sudan effectively faces a de facto territorial partition — the west under Hemedti’s paramilitary authority, the east under a weakened central command.

ASA Verification and Field Intelligence

African Security Analysis (ASA) has independently verified the RSF’s presence at El-Fasher’s main command compound through geolocated imagery, field reports, and satellite analysis.
However, combat remains active near the northern and western edges of the city.

ASA is also investigating allegations of atrocities attributed to RSF units.
Our field networks — operating across Darfur, Chad, and Kordofan — are conducting triangulated source verification to separate reliable eyewitness accounts from potential disinformation.

Parties seeking direct, verified updates on the ground situation are invited to contact ASA directly.
ASA’s embedded human networks and regional defence liaisons enable real-time verification, offering unfiltered situational awareness for partners, humanitarian actors, and governments.

Humanitarian and Regional Outlook

Without rapid humanitarian intervention, El-Fasher risks becoming another Geneina — a city emptied through siege, violence, and forced displacement.
Mass movements of civilians toward western Chad are already reported, increasing the pressure on fragile border zones.
The RSF’s expanding control may also embolden tribal militias and cross-border smuggling groups, deepening instability across the Sahel belt.

ASA foresees a massive secondary crisis in the coming weeks: refugee inflows, famine conditions, and the potential militarization of camps along the Chad–Sudan border.

Strategic Implications

The RSF’s latest victory transforms the power equation in Sudan’s war.
It positions Hemedti as the dominant military actor and potential power broker in future negotiations.
Meanwhile, Burhan’s faction risks international marginalization, relying solely on Egypt and Gulf support for survival.

The battle for El-Fasher signals not just a territorial shift, but a symbolic transition — the end of central authority in Darfur and the emergence of an RSF-governed proto-state, funded by illicit trade networks and sustained by foreign backers.

ASA Assessment

African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses that the seizure of El-Fasher represents a decisive inflection point in the Sudanese conflict, with long-term regional consequences.

Short-Term Outlook (0–3 months):

• RSF consolidates administrative control across Darfur.
• Continued air raids by SAF, limited in operational reach.
• Escalation of humanitarian emergencies in urban centers.

Medium-Term Outlook (3–9 months):

• Expansion of RSF trade corridors to Libya and Chad.
• Potential fragmentation of SAF factions in central Sudan.
• Increased foreign mediation attempts amid mounting civilian displacement.

ASA warns that Sudan is moving toward a fractured security order, where multiple armed economies coexist — each sustained by territorial control, foreign funding, and the exploitation of humanitarian chaos.

Engage With ASA

African Security Analysis (ASA) provides timely, verified intelligence and regional situational awareness for partners operating in Sudan, Chad, and the Sahel.

Our analysts and local field teams offer:

• Crisis verification and humanitarian risk tracking.
• Conflict-mapping intelligence for aid and security coordination.
• Strategic advisory on militia dynamics, supply routes, and foreign involvement.

For confidential assessments or operational updates, contact ASA’s Horn & Sahel Division.
With deep field connections and long-standing networks in Darfur and northern Chad, ASA ensures accurate, on-the-ground insights that support decision-making in complex and volatile environments.