Intensifying Conflict in Eastern DRC: M23 Rebels Advance
The Rwanda-backed M23 rebels intensified their offensive in early January 2025, advancing toward the strategic urban center of Masisi despite an official ceasefire. The Congolese military (FARDC) and its allied Wazalendo militias failed to halt the advance, resulting in M23 seizing control of Masisi and nearby settlements by January 4.
Located approximately 80 kilometers northwest of Goma—a provincial capital housing over a million residents—Masisi’s capture marks a major victory for the rebels. However, despite their historic capture of Goma in 2012, current indications suggest that the city is not a priority for M23 at this time.
Instead, local reports indicate that M23 is moving westward toward Walikale territory, an area targeted by the group in late 2024. Heavy clashes have also been reported near Bweremana, a strategic area often referred to as the gateway to South Kivu.
South Kivu itself has witnessed intensified violence, with a coalition of FARDC, Makanika forces, and Red Tabara fighters engaging in a fierce two-day battle around Minembwe, leaving over 30 people dead. Meanwhile, fresh clashes along key routes to South Kivu suggest the violence may escalate further and expand geographically.
In response, FARDC launched a counteroffensive, regaining control of settlements around Sake, Masisi, and Bweremana. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain.
M23’s recent movements indicate a renewed focus on Sake, a town it has besieged for months. Losing control of Sake under mounting internal and external pressure could have profound consequences for Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi, potentially shaping the future trajectory of the conflict.
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France-Madagascar Diplomatic Stalemate over Scattered Islands (Îles Éparses)
The second session of the Franco-Malagasy Joint Commission addressing the longstanding territorial dispute over the Scattered Islands ("Îles Éparses") concluded on June 30, 2025, in Paris, without significant progress. Despite hopes that the meeting would yield concrete outcomes, the discussions reached another impasse, further straining diplomatic relations between France and Madagascar.
Abduction of Three Indian Nationals in Kayes, Mali
On July 1, 2025, three Indian nationals were abducted from a cement factory in the city of Kayes, located in western Mali near the border with Senegal. The kidnapping occurred during a coordinated armed assault on the factory, reportedly carried out by militants linked to the al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).
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