South Sudan: Tensions Rise Amid Political Crackdowns and Localized Violence
Over the past week, from approximately March 12 to March 19, 2025, the security situation in South Sudan has been marked by escalating tensions and volatility, though no full-scale conflict has erupted. Key developments include:
- Rising Political Tensions: The arrest of opposition figures, including Lieutenant General Gabriel Duop Lam, a senior military official aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar, and the deployment of troops around Machar’s residence in Juba, heightened fears of a breakdown in the 2018 peace agreement between President Salva Kiir and Machar. These actions followed reports of security forces targeting allies of Machar, including the peacebuilding and petroleum ministers, further straining the fragile unity government.
- Violent Incidents: Intense fighting was reported in Nasir, Upper Nile State, on March 4, 2025, contributing to a volatile atmosphere. Additionally, an attack on a UN helicopter in the prior week (around March 7) resulted in dozens of deaths, including a general, prompting President Kiir to assert that the country would not return to war. Ceasefire monitors (CTSAMVM) warned that the Nasir conflict and ongoing arrests were destabilizing factors.
- Regional and International Response: Uganda deployed special forces to Juba to secure the capital amid rising tensions, though South Sudan’s government denied their presence. The United States ordered non-emergency personnel to leave South Sudan due to security concerns, including crime, kidnapping, and armed conflict risks. The U.S. and UK issued travel advisories, while the UN expressed alarm over the deteriorating situation. Regional mediators have been actively working to prevent a slide back into civil war.
- Government Stance: South Sudan’s Foreign Ministry and government officials maintained that the country remains "safe and secure," dismissing the Nasir violence as an isolated incident and rejecting foreign travel warnings. However, posts on X and reports from international observers suggest a more precarious reality, with urban crime rising and the potential for spontaneous unrest growing.
Overall, while the government downplays the situation, the combination of political crackdowns, localized clashes, and international evacuations indicates a fragile and unpredictable security environment in South Sudan over the last week.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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