Escalating Security Crisis in South Sudan
The reporting period has been marked by escalating tensions, armed clashes, and political instability, further exacerbating an already fragile security environment.
Clashes in Nasir, Upper Nile State
Violent confrontations broke out in Nasir County, Upper Nile State, between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and armed youth known as the White Army. The violence escalated following a marketplace attack on February 14. Reports indicate that SSPDF airstrikes targeted both Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) positions and civilian areas, worsening the humanitarian crisis. Thousands of residents fled, increasing displacement in an already conflict-ridden region.
Tensions in Juba
Security conditions in the capital, Juba, deteriorated due to a series of high-profile arrests and an armed attack on a northern military base. South Sudanese soldiers surrounded the residence of a senior official linked to political rivalries. The detentions of key allies of First Vice President Riek Machar, including the peacebuilding and petroleum ministers, raised concerns about the stability of the 2018 peace accord, which ended a civil war that claimed approximately 400,000 lives.
Previous reports from November 2024 highlighted heavy gunfire in Juba after President Salva Kiir dismissed intelligence chief Akol Koor Kuc, indicating a sustained period of political instability extending into March 2025.
Militia Advances and Regional Instability
Militia groups made advances in strategic border towns, including Nasir, further escalating insecurity. Posts on X described South Sudan as “slowly unraveling,” with conflicts reported across multiple regions, including Upper Nile, Warrap/Tonj, Western Bahr el Ghazal, and Western Equatoria. Additionally, cattle raids in Eastern Equatoria, Unity, and Warrap worsened instability in rural areas.
The ongoing conflict in Sudan has had spillover effects, contributing to security and economic pressures in South Sudan. Reports indicate an influx of fighters and disruptions in oil exports, further compounding the country’s challenges.
Humanitarian Crisis
The surge in violence across multiple regions has intensified the humanitarian crisis, leading to widespread displacement, food insecurity, and restricted access to essential services. The influx of over 970,000 returnees and refugees from Sudan since April 2023 has further strained resources, particularly in border areas such as Upper Nile, where cholera is spreading rapidly due to poor sanitation and overcrowding.
Political Fragility
The postponement of elections originally scheduled for December 2024 and delays in implementing the 2018 peace agreement have left communities vulnerable to renewed violence. The recent arrests in Juba signal potential fractures within the transitional government, posing a serious threat to the fragile peace process.
Economic Strain
With limited financial circulation and oil exports disrupted by Sudan’s conflict, South Sudan’s economy continues to deteriorate. These economic hardships have fueled urban crime and social unrest, adding to the country’s instability.
Assessment
The security situation in South Sudan remains highly volatile, shaped by ongoing armed conflicts, political power struggles, and regional spillover effects. The clashes in Nasir and tensions in Juba underscore the precarious state of the 2018 peace accord, while widespread instability in multiple states points to a broader security collapse. The lack of progress in implementing the peace agreement, coupled with economic hardship and displacement from Sudan, suggests a high risk of further deterioration.
Conclusion
South Sudan’s security landscape remains critical, with significant incidents reported over the past week. Immediate action is necessary to address the humanitarian crisis, stabilize the peace process, and mitigate the regional impact of Sudan’s conflict. Without decisive intervention, the country risks deeper instability and chaos.
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Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Strengthening Maritime Security and Navigating Sahelian Integration Challenges
On 23 April, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its fourth session under the theme “The Imperative of a Combined Maritime Task Force in Addressing Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.” Over the last decade, Gulf of Guinea states have deepened regional cooperation and harnessed digital technologies to bolster Maritime Domain Awareness, driving piracy incidents down from 84 in 2020 to just 18 in 2024. Yet much of this capability rests on platforms developed, financed, and controlled by external partners, leaving coastal states exposed to shifting geopolitical winds.
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