DRC – Doha Talks Falter as Fighting Escalates in Eastern Congo

Diplomatic Track: Doha Negotiations Stalled

The fifth round of Doha negotiations ended with no significant progress, producing only a non-operational prisoner exchange mechanism. The AFC/M23 is pushing for the release of 300 prisoners in Kinshasa, potentially repatriated via Uganda. Despite diplomatic efforts from Washington and Doha, the ceasefire remains largely unenforced as FARDC and AFC/M23 consolidate positions, and heavy fighting persists in North and South Kivu, undermining peace efforts. Direct talks for a comprehensive agreement have stalled, with no new date set after the missed August signing. Mediators suggest discussions may resume after the UN General Assembly, but confidence is low. Both sides show little restraint, national dialogue initiatives are on hold, and Western diplomats continue to facilitate communication.

Renewed Hostilities in South Kivu

On 21 September, clashes erupted in Nzibira, a mining hub at the junction of Mwenga and Shabunda territories. AFC/M23 fighters penetrated the town centre after heavy fighting that began at 3:00 a.m. local time. The seizure of this site underscores the rebels’ intent to consolidate control over South Kivu’s resource-rich corridors.

The ceasefire framework negotiated in Washington and Doha is effectively broken. In a rare move, the FARDC issued a public call urging captured or defected soldiers within M23 ranks to turn their weapons against the rebellion, signalling desperation and the erosion of command cohesion.

Escalation in North Kivu

Simultaneous clashes were reported in Katobi, Walikale territory, with heavy exchanges only 20 km from Pinga. Rebels, repelled the previous day, returned to attempt another assault on government positions.

Meanwhile, FARDC has intensified aerial bombardments against rebel positions in Bibwe, Masisi territory, attempting to push back advances and secure approaches to Goma. These strikes underline the increasing reliance on airpower as government ground forces face persistent difficulties.

Strategic Assessment

• Peace Process at Risk: The Doha track is slipping into irrelevance, with battlefield realities dictating the pace of diplomacy.
• Rebel Leverage: AFC/M23 consolidates its position by targeting mining towns, turning resource corridors into bargaining chips.
• Government Weaknesses: FARDC’s dependence on auxiliary groups and airstrikes reveals limited ground control capacity.
• Civilian Impact: Displacement is accelerating in both provinces, particularly in Nzibira and Walikale, with reports of forced recruitment and extortion.

Forward Outlook

• Short-term (30 days): Continued fighting in Nzibira, Walikale, and Masisi; no ceasefire discipline expected before talks resume in Doha.
• Medium-term (60–90 days): Prisoner-exchange mechanism may materialize, but without front-line stabilization it risks being symbolic only.
• Risk Trigger: A major rebel breakthrough around mining corridors could collapse what remains of the ceasefire framework.

African Security Analysis (ASA) Advisory

The DRC peace process is again hostage to battlefield momentum. Unless verifiable quiet is achieved in South and North Kivu, diplomatic frameworks will remain rhetorical. Investors, humanitarian actors, and political stakeholders should prepare for continued volatility around mining hubs and key transport corridors.

ASA remains available to deliver confidential, operational intelligence and scenario modelling at a reasonable cost for actors needing to align strategy with ground reality.