The SADC Withdrawal: A Critical Shift in Eastern DRC
Since December 2023, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a coalition of 16 nations, has deployed forces to eastern DRC under the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC). Tasked with supporting Kinshasa in countering the increasing influence of the M23/AFC rebel group—widely believed to be backed by Rwanda—SADC forces have played a pivotal role. However, with tensions mounting toward a decisive confrontation, the SADC has decided to withdraw its forces, leaving a strategic vacuum with far-reaching consequences.
Key Outcomes of the Extraordinary Summit
1. Immediate termination of SAMIDRC's mandate and withdrawal of forces.
2. Integration of the Luanda and Nairobi peace mechanisms.
3. Affirmation that Angola is not the sole mediator between Kinshasa and M23/AFC.
A Strategic Void at a Critical Moment
The timing of SADC's withdrawal is especially challenging for Kinshasa. Negotiations with the M23/AFC rebels had offered a glimmer of hope for resolving the long-standing conflict in eastern DRC. However, without SADC's military presence, Kinshasa loses a critical advantage. The Congolese army, already under strain, now faces an even greater challenge as it approaches the negotiation table from a weakened position.
For M23/AFC, this withdrawal represents a strategic opportunity. The perceived vulnerability of their adversaries could embolden the rebels to escalate their demands—either through intensified military action or by taking a harder stance during talks. The group has already voiced its expectations, seeking a formal announcement from the DRC president and an official invitation from mediators outlining the terms of reference for negotiations.
Negotiations on a Precarious Edge
The upcoming negotiations face a delicate balance. In an optimistic scenario, the resulting security vacuum might push both sides to compromise under pressure. A cornered Kinshasa might concede key points, while M23/AFC, sensing victory, could aim to consolidate its gains. However, if the rebels overestimate their strength, they may issue unrealistic demands, risking the collapse of talks and a renewed escalation of conflict.
Regional Repercussions
SADC's withdrawal risks straining its relations with Kinshasa, which may view the move as abandonment during a critical period. This development adds to Kinshasa's already deteriorating ties with the East African Community (EAC), whose withdrawal it had previously demanded. Additionally, Rwanda—often accused of supporting M23/AFC—might interpret this withdrawal as an opportunity to further its regional influence, potentially destabilizing the situation further.
Other stakeholders, such as the EAC and the United Nations, now face a pivotal decision: either increase their involvement to stabilize the region or risk allowing the conflict to spiral out of control. However, in a world already burdened with numerous crises, it remains uncertain who will take on this responsibility.
Humanitarian Implications
Amid these political and military maneuvers, the humanitarian crisis in eastern DRC continues to worsen. Millions of civilians remain displaced, villages have been destroyed, and widespread poverty persists. A breakdown in negotiations could deepen this disaster, while a successful peace process, however improbable, could offer a path to recovery for the devastated population.
A Decisive Moment
The SADC's withdrawal is more than just a tactical shift—it is a seismic change in the dynamics of the conflict. This move weakens the Congolese government, emboldens M23/AFC rebels, and places peace negotiations on unstable ground. With Angola-mediated talks set to begin on March 18, 2025, the stakes are higher than ever. The coming days will determine whether the region edges closer to a fragile peace or descends into renewed violence in the absence of SADC’s support.
Discover More
A Fragile Ceasefire in Eastern DRC
Amid ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two nearly identical statements released on April 23, 2025, announced an immediate ceasefire. One was signed in Goma by a member of the rebel group AFC/M23—someone not even officially part of the delegation—and the other was issued by the Congolese government in Kinshasa.
Ituri Under Surveillance
Rising Security Concerns The political fragmentation in eastern DRC continues to threaten the fragile stability of Ituri. The failure of the Doha process and the breakdown of the republican pact could pave the way for a new wave of unrest in the region. On April 22, 2025, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, met with leaders of the Lendu militia CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) in Entebbe. Officially, the meeting was convened to address CODECO’s attack on Ugandan military positions in Ituri, a confrontation that adds to past clashes between the group and the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). Key Figures and Discussions The CODECO delegation, led by Dunji Kulukpa Etienne (Vice President of the Lendu community), included political and militant representatives. On the Ugandan side, top-ranking officials participated: • General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, CDF • Lieutenant General Kayanja Muhanga, Land Forces Commander • Major General Felix Busizoori, Commander of the 4th Infantry Division • Brigadier General Oscar Munanura, Deputy Assistant Chief of Intelligence and Security Earlier in the week, CODECO leaders had already engaged with Ugandan military commanders. During the Entebbe meeting, Mr. Dunji expressed gratitude for Uganda’s reception and apologized for the Fataki clashes between CODECO and the UPDF. He claimed the militia had been influenced by external forces and emphasized that the Lendu, Balega, and Bahema communities do not view Uganda as an adversary. Dunji also highlighted Ituri’s worsening humanitarian crisis, attributing it to political divisions, while praising Uganda’s contributions in healthcare, refugee assistance, and economic aid. Uganda’s Expanding Influence in Ituri General Kainerugaba reaffirmed Uganda’s historical presence in North Kivu and Ituri, citing counter-insurgency operations dating back to the early 2000s. He urged CODECO leaders to collaborate with the UPDF in pursuit of a lasting peace. As a demonstration of goodwill, Ugandan forces provided free medical care to wounded CODECO fighters. Strategic Implications: A Larger Agenda? While Uganda frames this meeting as a step toward reconciliation, analysts at African Security Analysis suggest a deeper motive. They argue that the gathering was part of a broader effort to integrate CODECO into the militant coalition led by Thomas Lubanga, potentially setting the stage for coordinated offensives in Ituri, particularly targeting Bunia. If confirmed, this would signal a significant shift in the security landscape, with Uganda deepening its influence in Ituri under the guise of conflict resolution. The region remains under scrutiny as stakeholders assess the evolving dynamics.
Contact us to find out how our security services can support you.
We operate in almost all countries in Africa, including high-risk environments, monitoring and analyze ongoing conflicts, the hotspots and the potential upcoming threats on the continent. Every day. Around the clock.