Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order

Strategic Situation Update

Less than three years after the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, northern Ethiopia is once again experiencing a deterioration in security conditions. Clashes have resumed in western Tigray, particularly around Tsemlet, involving Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan armed elements, reigniting concerns over the sustainability of the post-conflict settlement reached at the end of 2022.

The resurgence of violence has already produced a tangible operational indicator: Ethiopian Airlines has suspended all flights to Tigray, officially citing “operational reasons.” In security contexts, such suspensions are widely interpreted as early-warning signals of escalating risk, reflecting either direct threats to aviation safety or broader instability affecting critical infrastructure.

A Ceasefire Under Structural Strain

According to converging security and diplomatic assessments, federal forces—supported by Amhara regional militias—have re-engaged Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) in an area that has long been contested on territorial and administrative grounds. Western Tigray remains a core fault line, where competing claims between Tigrayan authorities and Amhara actors were never conclusively resolved under the Pretoria framework.

The peace agreement formally required:

• The withdrawal of Eritrean forces
• The disengagement of Amhara regional militias
• The restoration of federal authority followed by political normalization

However, implementation has remained partial and uneven, allowing latent tensions to persist beneath a surface-level calm. The renewed clashes suggest that the ceasefire has transitioned from a stabilizing mechanism into a fragile holding arrangement, vulnerable to localized shocks.

Tsemlet: A Strategic Pressure Point

The locality of Tsemlet sits at the intersection of military, political, and ethnic fault lines. Control of the area carries not only symbolic significance but also operational depth, as it influences access routes, administrative authority, and future territorial settlements.

Security sources in Addis Ababa caution that the situation is fluid and potentially escalatory, particularly if federal and allied forces seek to consolidate control while Tigrayan units resist redeployment or marginalization. The risk of spillover into adjacent zones—especially toward Afar—cannot be discounted.

Internal Tigrayan Vulnerabilities

Beyond battlefield dynamics, internal political fragmentation within Tigray has weakened the region’s strategic posture. Since late 2025, several destabilizing indicators have emerged:

• Leadership fractures within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
• The resignation of the head of the interim Tigray administration
• Persistent security incidents along the Afar border

These developments have eroded cohesion at a moment when unified civilian and military leadership would be essential to manage post-war normalization.

In Mekelle, reports point to growing civilian anxiety, driven by fears that localized clashes could evolve into a broader confrontation reminiscent of the 2020–2022 war.

The Shadow of a Past War

The memory of the previous conflict—one of the deadliest in recent African history, with hundreds of thousands of fatalities—continues to shape perceptions and reactions. The Tigray conflict was never purely internal; it drew in regional militias and Eritrean forces, turning it into a multi-actor war with regional implications.

Analysts specializing in the Horn of Africa warn that renewed hostilities, even if initially limited, carry a high escalation potential, especially if external actors reassert influence or if federal-regional coordination breaks down further.

Strategic Assessment

At this stage, the resumption of fighting does not yet constitute a return to full-scale war. However, it clearly demonstrates that the post-Pretoria security architecture remains incomplete and reversible.

Key risk factors include:

• Unresolved territorial disputes in western Tigray
• Ambiguous force deployments and command structures
• Weak political consensus within Tigray
• The absence of credible enforcement or monitoring mechanisms

The suspension of air services underscores a critical reality: security confidence is eroding faster than political reconciliation is advancing.

Outlook

Unless accompanied by renewed diplomatic engagement, confidence-building measures, and credible guarantees on territorial governance, the current flare-up risks becoming a trigger rather than an anomaly.

For Ethiopia, the challenge is no longer merely ending conflict but preventing its normalization through cycles of unresolved tension. The events in Tsemlet serve as a reminder that peace agreements, without durable political settlements and security guarantees, remain strategic pauses rather than definitive conclusions.