Why the DRC’s Cobalt Export Ban Backfired: A Critical Report

Executive Summary
In June 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) abruptly banned all cobalt concentrate exports. The government hoped this move would increase state revenues, curb smuggling, and encourage local refining. However, the ban was launched without the legal framework, oversight, or infrastructure needed to make it work. As a result, both large industrial mining companies and small-scale artisanal miners were caught in the crossfire.

According to Africa Security Analysis (ASA), the export freeze exposed deeper systemic problems: weak regulations, poor production monitoring, and unpredictable policymaking. With no clear path forward, the government is now debating export quotas, permit reform, and limited exemptions—while global battery manufacturers and mining rivals are moving on. If these trends continue, the DRC risks losing its dominant position in the global cobalt market.

1. Weak Foundations and Missed Reforms

For over seven years, the DRC has failed to implement meaningful reforms to its mining laws—especially for key minerals like cobalt. Instead of enacting structural changes, governments have relied on short-term fixes like raising royalties. The June 2025 export ban was another such move: a dramatic action taken in place of real reform. ASA notes that this chronic inaction left the sector vulnerable to sudden policy shifts.

2. Timeline of Key Events

• 2018–2019: Draft reforms to the mining code stall; cobalt remains unclassified as a “strategic” mineral.
• 2023: Royalty hikes provoke industry backlash but fail to improve governance.
• June 2025: Government imposes an immediate export ban on cobalt concentrate.
• Late June 2025: Confusion grows during stakeholder meetings; local refining capacity proves insufficient.
• July–August 2025: Government considers export quotas, sparking new controversy.
• Q4 2025 (planned): Partial lifting of the ban expected—but details remain unclear.

3. Main Problems Behind the Crisis

At the heart of the crisis lies the DRC’s long-standing failure to establish a solid regulatory foundation for its cobalt industry. There are no standardized rules for licensing, environmental compliance, or refining obligations, which has created an unstable and unpredictable environment for investors and operators alike. This lack of clear regulation has not only discouraged long-term investment but has also made the sector vulnerable to abrupt policy changes like the June 2025 export ban.

Compounding this issue is the government's weak oversight of mining production. For years, cobalt output surged unchecked, flooding the global market and contributing to price volatility. Rather than proactively managing this growth, authorities responded too late, implementing drastic volume restrictions that unfairly affected even companies operating within the law. This reactive approach has further shaken confidence in the government’s ability to regulate the sector effectively.

Perhaps most damaging of all was the decision to impose a sweeping export ban that applied to all operators, regardless of size, compliance history, or processing capacity. This one-size-fits-all policy halted operations for everyone—from large multinational corporations to small-scale artisanal miners—igniting legal disputes and deepening economic uncertainty. According to Africa Security Analysis, such an indiscriminate approach not only invited legal challenges but also signalled to the global market that Kinshasa lacks the capability to manage its most strategic resource.

4. Consequences and Growing Risks

The sudden ban caused a global cobalt supply shock, creating price volatility and pushing buyers to seek alternatives—either new suppliers or cobalt-free battery technologies. Government revenues dropped sharply, worsening already fragile public finances. Planned refinery investments were halted, and foreign investors began pulling back.

For artisanal miners, the ban cut off a critical source of income, prompting protests and raising fears of a return to illegal mining, which could heighten social tensions. Meanwhile, competitors like Indonesia are ramping up production, putting the DRC’s market share at risk. ASA warns that unless the DRC changes course quickly, the global battery-metals industry could permanently shift away from Congolese cobalt.

5. Proposed Solutions—And Their Challenges

• Export Quotas
  Goal: Balance supply and demand.
  Problem: Without clear rules, quotas could lead to backroom deals and make planning difficult for companies.
• Permit System Overhaul
  Goal: Tie mining licenses to realistic production and refining goals.
  Problem: Retroactive changes could invite lawsuits and scare off investors.
• Phased Reopening for Compliant Operators
  Goal: Allow environmentally and socially responsible firms to resume exports.
  Problem: Local agencies lack the staff and tools to manage such a system fairly.

Conclusion

The DRC’s export ban was meant to add value to its cobalt industry and stop illegal trade. Instead, it exposed deep flaws in governance and planning. A more gradual, better-prepared pause—supported by legal reforms and industrial capacity—could have stabilized the market without damaging the economy.

ASA concludes that time is running out. With competitors advancing, investments stalling, and social tensions rising, the DRC must move beyond short-term fixes. Only structured, transparent reforms will restore confidence and protect the country's vital role in the global battery supply chain.