Russia’s Su-57 Enters North Africa

Strategic Military Intelligence Brief

Algeria Becomes First Foreign Operator of Moscow’s Fifth-Generation Fighter

Executive Assessment

Open-source imagery circulating online strongly suggests that Algeria has become the first foreign country to receive and operate Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter. If confirmed, this development represents a major qualitative shift in North Africa’s air power balance, with potential repercussions for regional deterrence dynamics, Russia’s arms export strategy, and Western security calculations on NATO’s southern flank.

The apparent delivery aligns with long-standing indicators of Algerian interest, leaked procurement documents, and prior Russian statements confirming exports to an unnamed foreign customer. Beyond the platform itself, the episode highlights Algeria’s continued strategic alignment with Moscow despite growing Western pressure and sanctions risk.

Open-Source Confirmation: Video Evidence from Northern Algeria

A recently surfaced video, filmed by a civilian and shared on social media, appears to show the distinctive silhouette of a Su-57 stealth fighter flying over terrain consistent with northern Algeria. The footage was posted by an Arabic-language TikTok user whose profile features Algerian domestic content, lending contextual credibility to the location.

Geospatial indicators in the video—including rolling hills and vegetation patterns—are consistent with the area surrounding Oum El Bouaghi Air Base near Aïn Beïda, a known Algerian Air Force installation. Open-source analysts note a close match between the visible landscape and publicly available imagery of the base’s surroundings.

While Algerian authorities have not issued official confirmation, ASA assesses the video as highly likely authentic, given its alignment with prior intelligence indicators and Russia’s own export disclosures.

Background: Algeria’s Long-Standing Interest in the Su-57

Algeria’s interest in Russia’s fifth-generation fighter dates back at least to 2019, following high-level Algerian defence engagement at the MAKS Air Show in Moscow, where the Su-57E export variant was unveiled.

Subsequent reporting suggested advanced negotiations, culminating in a significant intelligence leak in October 2025, when the hacker collective Black Mirror released internal documents from Russia’s state-owned Rostec conglomerate. These documents indicated:

• an Algerian order for 12 Su-57 aircraft,
• an additional order for 14 Su-34 fighter-bombers,
• and avionics packages supplied by AO KRET, valued at approximately $200 million for the Su-57 fleet alone.

Russian aviation media later reported the total value of the Su-57 deal at approximately $2 billion, though discrepancies remain regarding the exact number of aircraft ordered (12 vs. 14).

Russian Confirmation and Strategic Significance

In November 2025, Russian officials publicly confirmed that two Su-57 fighters had already been delivered to an unnamed foreign customer, widely assessed by analysts to be Algeria. If accurate, Algeria is now the only country outside Russia operating the platform.

From Moscow’s perspective, this sale carries outsized importance:

• it validates the Su-57 as an exportable system,
• provides a critical revenue stream amid sanctions and wartime economic strain,
• and reinforces Russia’s defence relationships with non-Western and non-aligned states, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.

ASA assesses that Algeria’s acquisition also serves a symbolic function for Moscow: demonstrating continued relevance as a high-end arms supplier despite Western isolation.

Regional Military Balance and Algeria–Morocco Dynamics

The presence of a fifth-generation fighter in Algeria represents a significant leap in air combat capability, particularly in areas of sensor fusion, low observability, and beyond-visual-range engagement.

This development risks altering the military balance between Algeria and its western neighbour Morocco, whose rivalry remains one of North Africa’s most persistent fault lines. The Algeria–Morocco land border has been closed since 1994, yet tensions have periodically escalated through diplomatic crises, proxy narratives, and arms acquisitions.

In November 2024, Morocco’s Foreign Minister publicly accused Algeria of seeking escalation and preparing for military confrontation—claims Algiers has dismissed as unfounded and provocative. While no immediate conflict indicators are present, ASA assesses that perceived asymmetries in air power could fuel an accelerated regional arms dynamic, particularly involving advanced aircraft, air defence systems, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Western Response and Sanctions Risk

The acquisition has drawn explicit concern from Washington. U.S. officials have warned that Algeria’s purchase of advanced Russian military systems could trigger sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Senior U.S. diplomatic officials have described the deal as “problematic,” underscoring the broader dilemma facing Western policymakers: balancing pressure on Algeria over defence procurement choices against the country’s strategic importance in energy supply, counterterrorism, and regional stability.

ASA assesses that any immediate sanctions response is likely to be calibrated rather than punitive, reflecting Algeria’s geopolitical weight and the risk of pushing Algiers further toward Moscow.

Strategic Outlook (ASA Assessment)

The apparent deployment of the Su-57 in Algeria should be understood less as an isolated arms transfer and more as part of a broader modernization trajectory within the Algerian Air Force and a deepening of Algeria–Russia strategic ties.

Key implications include:

• enhanced Algerian deterrence posture in North Africa,
• validation of Russia’s fifth-generation export ambitions,
• increased Western scrutiny and diplomatic friction,
• and a higher probability of competitive military acquisitions in the Maghreb.

Conclusion

If confirmed, Algeria’s operation of the Su-57 marks a historic first for Russia’s defence exports and a structural shift in North Africa’s air power environment. The move strengthens Algeria’s strategic autonomy, reinforces Moscow’s foothold in African defence markets, and introduces new variables into an already fragile regional balance.

From an ASA perspective, the critical question is not whether this development signals imminent conflict—but whether it accelerates a long-term militarization cycle in the Maghreb, with implications extending beyond Algeria and Morocco to NATO’s southern perimeter and Mediterranean security more broadly.