Red Sea Strategy and Strategic Realignment

Israel’s Diplomatic Consolidation in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa

Introduction

Israeli President Isaac Herzog arrived in Addis Ababa on February 24 for a two-day official visit carrying significant geopolitical weight. While formally framed as bilateral talks with Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the visit reflects broader strategic calculations. It comes at a moment when Israel’s relations with several African partners have cooled considerably following the October 7, 2023 attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza.

Ethiopia: A Strategic Anchor in the Horn of Africa

For Israel, Ethiopia remains one of its most important strategic partners on the continent. As Africa’s second most populous country and host of the African Union headquarters, Addis Ababa occupies both diplomatic and geopolitical centrality in a region shaped by maritime competition in the Red Sea and shifting security dynamics involving Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea.

Herzog’s visit follows a consequential diplomatic development: Israel’s decision in late December to recognize the independence of Somaliland, the self-declared state that broke away from Somalia. This move, widely interpreted as part of Israel’s broader Red Sea strategy, positions Tel Aviv more firmly within a regional alignment that includes the United Arab Emirates—already deeply invested in the Horn of Africa and closely linked to Ethiopia.

For landlocked Ethiopia, which has pursued renewed access to maritime corridors since Eritrea’s independence, Red Sea dynamics are equally strategic. Converging interests in maritime security, regional stability, and infrastructure corridors create a foundation for deeper Israeli-Ethiopian cooperation.

Security, Intelligence, and Technology at the Core of Discussions

Security cooperation forms the central pillar of the visit. Israel is widely recognized for its expertise in intelligence, cybersecurity, surveillance systems, and defence technology. Ethiopia, still navigating post-Tigray internal tensions and facing persistent regional instability, continues to modernize its security architecture.

Addis Ababa has already diversified its defence partnerships, notably engaging Turkey for drone acquisitions and military equipment. Expanding ties with Israel adds a complementary dimension—particularly in cyber defence, intelligence integration, and technological capacity building.

In January, Israel’s embassy in Addis Ababa hosted a workshop on cyber threat mitigation, signalling deepening technical collaboration. For Ethiopia, such cooperation strengthens institutional resilience. For Israel, it embeds strategic influence within one of the Horn’s most pivotal states.

A More Distant Africa Since Gaza

The visit unfolds against a challenging diplomatic backdrop. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, many African governments have expressed solidarity with Palestinians, and criticism of Israel has intensified in multilateral forums.

At the February 14 African Union summit, strong rhetoric emerged from several leaders. The President of the AU Commission, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, called for an end to what he described as the “extermination” of the Palestinian people—illustrating the hardened tone among segments of African leadership.

Although Israel obtained observer status at the African Union in 2021, the position has faced persistent opposition, particularly from Algeria and South Africa. In this context, a broad continental diplomatic reset appears unlikely in the short term.

A Targeted, Bilateral Diplomatic Strategy

Rather than pursuing continent-wide diplomacy through multilateral institutions, Israel appears to be focusing on selective bilateral engagement with strategically positioned states—particularly those bordering the Red Sea or playing central roles in regional security architectures.

Ethiopia meets multiple criteria: demographic weight, geopolitical location, historical ties (including the Ethiopian Jewish community), and concrete security needs. Herzog’s visit therefore represents less a symbolic gesture and more a consolidation of strategic depth in a critical region.

The message is clear: despite international criticism and diplomatic friction, Israel intends to remain an active and influential actor in Africa—particularly in zones where maritime access, counterterrorism cooperation, and technological partnerships intersect.

Strategic Outlook

The Addis Ababa visit reflects a recalibrated Israeli approach to Africa—one that prioritizes maritime corridors, intelligence alliances, and technological integration over broad symbolic outreach. Whether this targeted strategy can offset reputational challenges in parts of the continent remains uncertain.

Much will depend on two variables: the trajectory of the Gaza conflict and Israel’s ability to present its partnerships in Africa as mutually beneficial and stability-enhancing rather than politically divisive.

In the Horn of Africa, however, Israel’s strategic footprint appears poised to deepen—anchored by security cooperation, Red Sea geopolitics, and carefully cultivated bilateral alliances.