The Sahara-for-Seabed Transaction: Morocco–Spain Strategic Exchange Beneath the Atlantic

Strategic Overview — Sovereignty on Land, Power Underwater

Current evidence indicates that the evolving Morocco–Spain relationship is not a standard diplomatic realignment, nor a mere normalization process.
It is the architecture of a transactional bargain:

• Spain publicly endorses Moroccan claims over Western Sahara, reframing Europe’s long-standing ambivalence.
• Morocco silently freezes its maritime expansionism, allowing Spain uncontested access to Canary Basin seabed minerals.

The trade is simple in logic, impossible to sign, and already operational.

Western Sahara, the cornerstone of Moroccan state doctrine since 1975, becomes political currency.
The Canary deep-sea mineral fields, a geological jackpot of cobalt, tellurium, and rare earths, become strategic compensation.

No European government could survive a treaty that formalized such a bargain.
Yet Rabat and Madrid are behaving as if it already exists.

Spain’s Pivot Was Driven by Security, Not Sympathy

Madrid’s 2022 declaration calling Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Sahara

“The most serious, realistic and credible option”
was not a symbolic gesture.
It was a survival decision driven by three fears:

1. Energy scarcity and dependence on Chinese-controlled critical minerals.

2. Migration destabilization, repeatedly weaponized through border pressure.

3. Strategic displacement within the EU, especially against France and Italy.

Spain’s foreign policy elite knows the rulebook:

• Sahara is Morocco’s first red line.
• Maritime sovereignty is Morocco’s second red line.
• Migration is Rabat’s coercive instrument.

Spanish recognition is not ideological alignment.
It is geopolitical insurance purchased at the lowest cost: words.

The Seabed as the Real Prize

The Tropic Seamount, southwest of El Hierro, is not theoretical geology.
It is a strategic asset with global consequences:

• Cobalt reserves capable of sustaining decades of industrial demand.
• Tellurium concentrations among the highest known on the planet, critical for photovoltaic efficiency and missile electronics.
• Rare earth metals indispensable to EU technological sovereignty.

For Europe, which has spent 15 years dependent on Chinese supply chains,

this seabed is not valuable — it is existential.

Spain is not defending local economic interests.
It is safeguarding a continental lifeline in an era of strategic autonomy.

Morocco sits geographically at the hinge of that lifeline.

Rabat’s Legislative Pistol (2020 Maritime Laws)

In 2020, Morocco passed two maritime extension laws expanding:

• Territorial waters
• Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

These lines overlap or closely brush Canary maritime claims.

Critically:

• They are drafted,
• never fully activated,
• never rescinded.

They are a holstered weapon.

The message to Madrid is implicit:

“You maintain your position on Sahara.
We maintain silence on your minerals.”

The pistol is visible.
It has not fired.
It does not need to—yet.

Western Sahara as Diplomatic Currency

Spain’s support gives Morocco what decades of UN sessions never did:
a structurally important European endorsement.

This delivers three strategic gains:

1. Neutralization of one of Polisario’s historic sponsors.

2. Logistics corridor via Spanish ports for Moroccan exports, bypassing EU frictions.

3. Enhanced migration control mechanisms, defusing Spain’s domestic vulnerability.

Morocco’s doctrine is consistent:

• Consolidate Western Sahara’s political status.
• Expand Atlantic access.
• Weaponize migration asymmetrically.
• Make Europe structurally dependent on Moroccan cooperation.

Spain is not the first to understand this.
It is the first to surrender publicly.

High-Level Diplomacy — Formal Policies, Informal Realities

The Madrid–Rabat High-Level Meeting (HLM) is expected to produce agreements on:

• Transport
• Energy
• Training
• Port logistics
• Migration management
• Joint coordination around the 2030 World Cup

None of the official documents will mention the real bargain.
African policymakers must read the silence:

State interests are being traded off-ledger.

Hidden Fragilities

Spain

• Civil society remains pro-self-determination.
• Opposition accuses Sánchez of geopolitical capitulation.
• Canary regional authorities fear environmental destruction and loss of maritime sovereignty.

Morocco

• Nationalist elites want maritime activation, not restraint.
• Autonomy plan ≠ sovereign recognition.
• Military establishment sees concessions as weakness.

This arrangement can last 20 years or collapse in 24 hours.

Principle at Stake: Geography vs. Legitimacy

For Rabat, Western Sahara is not a diplomatic file.
It is a pillar of regime continuity.

For Madrid, Canary seabed minerals are not a technical curiosity.
They are industrial survival in the post-fossil era.

Both actors are trading leverage, not principles:

• Morocco trades silence.
• Spain trades legitimacy.

The Missing Populations

Two populations remain structurally ignored:

• The Sahrawis, abandoned to political limbo.
• The Canary Islanders, who fear deep-sea extraction, ecosystem collapse, and geopolitical intrusion.

Neither group will shape the deal.
Only state power will.

Validation Phase — Diplomatic or Industrial

The real test is not diplomatic.
It is industrial.

Extraction begins ≈ 2030–2032.

Three trajectories:

1. Morocco stays silent.
→ Pact is real, Madrid secures minerals, Rabat secures Western Sahara narrative.

2. Morocco activates its maritime laws.
→ Madrid invokes EU and UNCLOS shields, Rabat claims continental shelf rights.
→ Relationship fractures.

3. EU intervention.
→ Spain loses exclusivity, Morocco becomes industrial-logistics partner.
→ Arrangement becomes continental, not bilateral.

Intelligence Scenarios

A. Strategic Equilibrium (Base Case — 55–60%)

• Spain maintains Sahara position.
• Morocco avoids EEZ activation.
• Canary extraction proceeds.
• Both sides claim “win-win.”

Stability via mutual denial.

B. Assertive Morocco (20–25%)

Triggers:

• Internal nationalist pressure
• EU political backlash
• Migration crisis event

Mechanism:

• Rabat activates maritime laws.
• Spain escalates to Brussels.
• Arbitration process begins.

Result: durable strain, not rupture.

C. Breakdown (15–20%)

Catalysts:

• Sahrawi unrest
• Canary environmental revolt
• A failed migrant deal

Outcome:

• Diplomatic freeze
• Polisario re-enters Spain’s discourse
• Joint commissions collapse

D. European Takeover (10–15%)

The EU centralizes extraction via industrial policy.

Effect:

• Spain loses exclusivity
• Morocco becomes corridor operator
• Bargain is neutralized at supranational level

African Security Analysis (ASA) Assessment

This is not cooperation.
It is political necessity disguised as partnership.

Spain needs minerals.
Morocco needs recognition.

Both cannot afford a treaty.
Both operate through gestures, vetoes, and implicit red lines.

If the bargain holds, it will reshape the geopolitical economy of the Atlantic
and confirm a broader lesson:

In the 21st century, sovereignty is traded above the soil — and beneath the ocean floor.

African Security Analysis (ASA) — December 2025