Tanzania Security Outlook Ahead of the 2025 Presidential Election

African Security Analysis (ASA) Briefing

Executive Summary

Tanzania is entering its October 2025 general elections in a climate of relative calm but rising political tension. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is widely expected to retain power under President Samia Suluhu Hassan. However, the exclusion of the main opposition party, CHADEMA, and the prosecution of its leader Tundu Lissu, have heightened concerns over political freedoms and the credibility of the electoral process.

While security forces are well-prepared and the country remains among East Africa’s more stable states, risks of localized unrest, human rights concerns, and reputational costs for the government are significant. International stakeholders—including investors and diplomatic partners—should monitor developments closely, particularly in urban centres and politically sensitive regions.

Background

The 2025 elections are scheduled for 29 October, with President Hassan seeking a renewed mandate under the banner of CCM, the party that has governed Tanzania since independence. Although the country has long been considered one of the region’s more stable and peaceful states, this year’s election has been marked by the absence of a credible opposition challenge. CHADEMA, the leading opposition party, has been disqualified on procedural grounds, while its leader, Tundu Lissu, was arrested in April and faces treason charges following his calls for electoral reforms.

These developments have cast a shadow over the electoral process. While CCM’s dominance suggests continuity in government, the political restrictions have fuelled questions about the inclusivity and competitiveness of the contest.

Current Situation

On the surface, Tanzania’s security environment remains calm. Police leaders have repeatedly emphasized that their mission during the election period is to maintain peace and stability, stressing that the contest is not a matter of war but of routine democratic governance. The absence of large-scale protests or unrest so far reflects both the state’s firm grip on political activity and the broader public’s general aversion to instability.

Nevertheless, the environment is becoming increasingly restrictive. Civil society groups and international observers have reported arbitrary arrests of opposition supporters, harassment of activists, and even mistreatment of foreign nationals who sought to engage with political trials. At the same time, restrictions on social media and online platforms—imposed intermittently under the justification of security threats—have raised concerns about transparency and freedom of expression in the digital space.

Public confidence in the electoral process has been undermined by the disqualification of opposition candidates and the use of regulatory frameworks that critics say narrow political participation. While these measures have not yet translated into widespread unrest, they risk eroding trust in democratic institutions and could become flashpoints during the electoral period.

Risk Assessment

The main risks surrounding the 2025 elections stem less from the possibility of organized insurgency or large-scale conflict, and more from the way the state manages dissent. Continued arrests, limitations on assembly, and censorship could provoke frustration and sporadic demonstrations, particularly in politically active urban centres such as Dar es Salaam and Arusha. If security forces respond with disproportionate force, there is potential for escalation and reputational damage.

For the government, international criticism represents a secondary but significant risk. Tanzania has long cultivated an image of stability within East Africa, and allegations of human rights abuses or unfair electoral practices could strain relations with donors and reduce its attractiveness to foreign investors. The business environment remains operationally stable, but reputational risks are growing, especially for companies with close government ties.

At the same time, there are mitigating factors. Tanzania’s security forces are cohesive, disciplined, and strongly aligned with state institutions. The ruling party maintains deep organizational capacity and control across the country, making the prospect of widespread instability relatively low. Furthermore, public sentiment, shaped by the memory of regional instability, may limit enthusiasm for sustained protest movements.

Outlook and Implications

Tanzania is likely to experience what can best be described as a managed but restrictive election. The outcome will almost certainly favour the ruling party, but the process is expected to generate questions over legitimacy and inclusivity. This dynamic may not trigger significant instability in the short term, but it carries longer-term implications for governance, civil liberties, and international perceptions of the country.

For international stakeholders, the key considerations are twofold. Diplomatically, pressure for greater transparency and restraint is likely to grow, though it is unlikely to alter the electoral outcome. For investors and business actors, operational conditions should remain stable, but reputational exposure could increase if Tanzania is seen as backsliding democratically.

From a regional perspective, Tanzania’s trajectory matters for East African stability. While neighbours such as Kenya, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo face their own security challenges, Tanzania has historically served as a relative anchor of calm. Whether it can maintain that role while narrowing its democratic space will be closely watched in the months ahead.

ASA Assessment: Tanzania is expected to remain secure through the election period, but the narrowing of political freedoms and the exclusion of credible opposition point to growing risks beneath the surface. The near-term outlook is one of stability, but with mounting reputational costs and long-term concerns for governance.