Security Situation in Mali

A Volatile Week in Late April 2025

Mali's security crisis deepened in the final week of April 2025, reflecting the country’s ongoing struggles with jihadist violence, internal unrest, and regional instability. Under military rule since 2021, Mali remains trapped in a worsening cycle of conflict, further complicated by weakened international support and diplomatic friction. Below is a summary of key developments during this turbulent period.

Rising Jihadist Threat in Western Mali

On April 28, 2025, Malian armed forces (FAMa) reported heavy fighting with militants from Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al Qaeda-affiliated group, in the western town of Sebabougou. The military claimed to have recaptured the area with the help of drone strikes, leaving 21 militants dead and five soldiers injured. The clash highlights JNIM’s increasing reach toward the capital, Bamako, and southern regions such as Sikasso.

The same day saw reports of roadside bombs, ambushes, and raids by JNIM, reinforcing concerns about the group’s evolving tactics. Just days earlier, on April 25, the army claimed it had neutralized around 30 militants, including two senior operatives—Hassana Sangaré (alias Abou Sy) and Seydou Sidibé (alias Diabero). While the deaths of these high-profile figures mark tactical wins, they also point to the persistent threat posed by deeply embedded insurgent networks.

Worsening Security Climate

Security across Mali has steadily deteriorated since the junta solidified power. Jihadist attacks have surged—by as much as sevenfold in certain regions—while the government struggles with both battlefield losses and diplomatic isolation. A major diplomatic crisis erupted in early April when Algeria shot down a Malian drone, further straining bilateral ties.

The exit of French forces in 2022 and the full withdrawal of the UN’s peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) in December 2023 have left a dangerous power vacuum. Both JNIM and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have capitalized on the absence of international forces, expanding their territorial influence.

The junta’s collaboration with Russian mercenaries, particularly the Wagner Group, has drawn international condemnation. Reports from Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International cite civilian casualties and human rights abuses in joint operations. Strikes in Segou and Timbuktu earlier this year, including a February drone strike on a wedding in Konokassi and recent killings in N’Dola, have inflamed local resentment and further undermined state legitimacy.

Humanitarian and Political Fallout

The violence is intensifying Mali’s humanitarian crisis. The International Rescue Committee estimates that nearly one million children under five face acute malnutrition, largely due to supply blockades by armed groups. Over 375,000 people are currently displaced, while humanitarian needs have ballooned, with 8.8 million in need as of mid-2023—a number likely to have grown. Alarmingly, only 30% of the 2023 humanitarian response plan was funded, severely hampering relief efforts.

Politically, the junta faces increasing domestic backlash. On May 3, widespread protests erupted nationwide, driven by dissatisfaction with the government’s failure to restore security, repression of dissent, and indefinite postponement of promised elections. Originally set for February 2024, elections were delayed with the junta extending its rule by three more years. Crackdowns on media, activists, and opposition voices have further narrowed democratic space, fuelling public anger.

Regional and International Dimensions

Mali’s instability is reverberating across the Sahel. Alongside Burkina Faso and Niger, Mali formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after withdrawing from ECOWAS in January 2025, signalling a pivot toward regional self-reliance and Russian support. Despite this shift, jihadist groups like JNIM and ISGS continue expanding their operations across the region.

A UN report from August 2024 warned that extremist groups could soon dominate a corridor stretching from Mali to northern Nigeria. The UN Security Council has called for accountability and a return to constitutional rule, but Mali’s rejection of MINUSMA and frayed ties with Western allies limit external influence. Algeria’s plans to host a regional counterterrorism summit in January 2025 underscore the growing global concern over the Sahel’s role as a terrorism hotspot.

Conclusion

The last week of April 2025 underscored the fragile and volatile nature of Mali’s security environment. Although the military has claimed victories against jihadist forces, these gains are offset by a broader trend of instability, including serious human rights violations, deepening humanitarian distress, and mounting political unrest. The junta’s growing reliance on Russian mercenaries and its disengagement from traditional allies have further isolated the country. With violence spilling across borders, the international community faces urgent questions about how to contain the Sahel’s spiralling crisis without worsening local grievances.

Note: This article is based on open-source information, including posts on X and web reports, and reflects the situation as understood at the time of writing. The volatile nature of Mali’s security environment means developments may evolve rapidly.