Security Developments in the Central African Republic

African Security Analysis (ASA) | August 2025

Overview
The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a complex security environment, characterised by persistent armed group activity, cross-border spillover from neighbouring conflicts, and ongoing efforts at disarmament and reconciliation. From mid-July to mid-August 2025, CAR witnessed a mixture of cautious progress and deepening vulnerabilities. Key developments include the extension of UN sanctions on non-state actors, modest advances in the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) process, and increasing international scrutiny of human rights violations. Concurrently, Russia’s influence through the Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) continues to grow, raising concerns over abuses in mining zones and economic pressures on state structures.

Political and Sanctions Landscape
The UN Security Council extended sanctions targeting non-state armed groups and individuals in CAR until July 2026, through Resolution 2789 (July 29, 2025). These sanctions—encompassing asset freezes, travel bans, and arms embargoes—reflect enduring concerns over the ability of armed factions to exploit natural resources and transhumance corridors for strategic advantage.

Preparations for local elections, originally postponed to April 2025, continue under constrained conditions. The CAR government has formally requested UN support to ensure electoral security, highlighting the persistent capacity gaps within national institutions. In high-level diplomacy, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra met Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on August 21 to discuss security stabilization and bilateral cooperation, reflecting CAR’s ongoing efforts to consolidate international support ahead of national elections scheduled for December 2025.

Security Incidents and Armed Group Activity
Violence has remained concentrated in the northeast, particularly Vakaga prefecture, where instability in Sudan has spilled across borders. Clashes involving Sudanese armed groups in early August resulted in civilian casualties, property destruction, and rising inter-communal tensions. Local youth groups have publicly demanded military training and restrictions on Sudanese herders to counter insecurity, indicating growing local mobilization around self-defence initiatives.

A particularly severe incident occurred at a gold mining site controlled by Russia’s Africa Corps in late July, resulting in the deaths of at least 11 artisanal miners and multiple missing persons. Allegations suggest potential summary executions and broader patterns of abuse, including forced labour and sexual exploitation at mining and farming sites. Concurrently, Haut-Mbomou prefecture has seen escalations between the Azandé armed group and Fulani herders, with support from CAR forces and Russian mercenaries, displacing thousands and causing dozens of deaths. These developments illustrate the intertwined nature of local resource competition and foreign intervention in perpetuating conflict.

Disarmament and Peace Processes
Progress within the DDR framework under the 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation remains the most promising security development. In July, leaders of the Unity for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) and Return, Reclamation, and Rehabilitation (3R) factions announced the formal dissolution of their groups and a commitment to cease hostilities. By August, over 5,000 former combatants had agreed to disarm and reintegrate into civilian life, with MINUSCA providing oversight and logistical support. While this represents a tangible step toward reconciliation, challenges persist in areas with minimal state presence and limited economic opportunities for returnees.

The EU Advisory Mission in CAR (EUAM-RCA) continues to support security sector reform, including efforts to rehabilitate the National Council for Security Sector Reform (CNRSS), aimed at bolstering institutional credibility and public confidence.

Human Rights and Humanitarian Situation
Human rights conditions in CAR deteriorated significantly, with documented violations rising 73% from previous periods. Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) and grave abuses against children are of particular concern. A mid-August UN report indicated a 25% global rise in CRSV, positioning CAR among the countries with the highest incidence. Perpetrators include armed groups, state security forces, and foreign mercenaries, highlighting the multifaceted nature of abuse.

The influx of Sudanese refugees has compounded humanitarian pressures, with armed actors exploiting camps for recruitment and targeting populations along ethnic lines. Food insecurity affects approximately 2.2 million people, roughly one-third of the population, exacerbated by conflict and climate-induced floods. MINUSCA maintains temporary bases to protect civilians, though operational challenges—particularly restrictions on UAV use—have hindered monitoring and rapid response capacities.

International and Foreign Actor Engagement
Russia’s footprint in CAR has expanded following the Wagner-to-Africa Corps transition. Leaked documents indicate demands for $15 million monthly in security services, representing roughly 40% of CAR’s 2025 budget. This deepening engagement raises concerns about economic exploitation, militarization of resource extraction, and influence over political and religious institutions, including the Moscow Patriarchate.

MINUSCA continues to navigate security challenges amid disinformation campaigns and targeted attacks, including the June killing of a peacekeeper in Vakaga—the third such incident in 2025. The UN and CAR’s international partners face growing pressure to support DDR, electoral security, and civilian protection in a landscape complicated by foreign interference and domestic fragility.

Outlook
While DDR progress offers cautious optimism, persistent armed violence, humanitarian crises, and foreign exploitation pose significant risks of relapse. The upcoming elections will be a critical test for CAR’s fragile political and security framework; mismanaged processes could exacerbate instability. International actors must prioritize support for electoral preparations, DDR implementation, and civilian protection measures, while closely monitoring the evolving influence of foreign actors, particularly in resource extraction and security provision. The trajectory of CAR’s stability remains contingent on effective governance, credible peacebuilding, and sustained international engagement.