Security Council Forecast – Somalia (April 2025)

What to Expect in April:
The UN Security Council will hold a private meeting on Somalia. James Swan, the UN’s top representative in Somalia, will brief the Council, along with an African Union (AU) representative. They’ll review progress on the AU’s new mission, AUSSOM, and the UN’s own mission, UNTMIS. A joint session with the AU, UN, and international partners is also planned.

Recent Events:
Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaida-linked terrorist group, continues violent attacks to destabilize Somalia. Notable incidents:

• Feb 20: Villages in Middle Shabelle briefly taken, 130 militants killed.
• Feb 27: Balad town attacked and retaken by government forces.
• Mar 11: Hotel siege in Beledweyne killed 10, including elders and officers.
• Mar 18: Attack on President’s convoy killed 4.
• Further attacks near Mogadishu and its airport show the group’s reach.

The Somali government, with support from AUSSOM, local militias, and foreign allies like Ethiopia, the U.S., and UAE, has launched major offensives, killing over 400 Al-Shabaab fighters.

In February, the AU and Somalia agreed on troop numbers for AUSSOM (nearly 12,000 personnel), with support from countries including Uganda, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Police units from Egypt, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone are also being deployed.

A UN-AU team reviewed the UN Support Office in Somalia in March, with findings due 1 April.

Key Issues:

• The Council will review a roadmap for transferring UNTMIS responsibilities to Somali authorities.
• Concerns remain over governance, political tensions, and clan divisions.
• Despite military pressure, Al-Shabaab remains a strong threat.
• Funding for AUSSOM is a major concern. A new financing model (Resolution 2719) is set to start in July, but some members—especially the U.S.—oppose it, fearing long-term UN financial commitments. A donor conference may be needed to avoid a funding gap.

Council Dynamics:
Most Council members support Somalia’s fight against terrorism and political reforms. But there’s disagreement over how to fund AUSSOM. The U.S. prefers cost-sharing with the EU, while Somalia and others back UN-assessed contributions under Resolution 2719. The EU supports a mix of funding options and has focused on Somali-led security.

Bottom Line:
April’s talks come at a critical time. Somalia faces serious security threats and political hurdles. How the international community handles military funding, and political support will shape Somalia’s path to stability.