Security Council Forecast – Libya (April 2025)

Overview
In April, the UN Security Council will hold its regular briefing on Libya. Hanna Tetteh, the UN’s new Special Representative and head of the Libya mission (UNSMIL), will update members on political, security, and humanitarian issues, as well as the latest Secretary-General report. A separate briefing by the Chair of the Libya Sanctions Committee may also occur, though the chair has not yet been appointed.

Political and Security Situation
Libya remains divided between two rival governments:

• The UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.
• The eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), led by Osama Hamad and backed by the House of Representatives and General Haftar’s Libyan National Army.

Elections, originally set for 2021, are still delayed. The main disagreement is over who should lead the country into elections. The GNU rejects proposals to form a new interim government, while the GNS and its allies support it.

In February, UNSMIL launched an Advisory Committee of Libyan experts to help resolve these disputes. By March, it had held five sessions, including talks with the 6+6 Committee, which is working on legal frameworks for elections.

Tetteh, who took office in February, has pledged to support a Libyan-led and inclusive political process, in line with the mission’s renewed mandate.

ICC Developments
In January, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Osama Elmasry Njeem for alleged war crimes. He was briefly arrested in Italy but released and returned to Libya due to legal and security concerns. The ICC was not informed of the release, prompting an investigation in Italy. Libya remains under ICC jurisdiction due to a 2011 Security Council referral.

Key Issues and Options
The Security Council continues to seek ways to support a peaceful, Libyan-led path to elections. April’s meeting will evaluate the Advisory Committee’s progress and may discuss next steps to strengthen UNSMIL’s role. The Council might issue a press statement backing the current efforts or consider informal talks (like an Arria-formula meeting) with Libyan factions to encourage dialogue.

Council Dynamics
Most members support the UN-led process and the Advisory Committee. However, Russia has criticized the Committee’s formation and calls for more inclusion of Libyan voices. Tensions remain due to broader geopolitical concerns, especially Russia’s increased role in eastern Libya and past disputes over NATO’s involvement.