Security Council Forecast – Great Lakes Region (DRC) (April 2025)

Overview

In April, the UN Security Council will receive a briefing from Special Envoy Huang Xia on the situation in the Great Lakes region, focusing on the worsening conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework (PSC-F). UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell will also speak, highlighting child protection concerns.

Worsening Security in Eastern DRC

Violence in eastern DRC has escalated sharply. The M23 rebel group has taken control of key areas in North and South Kivu, including near Goma and Bukavu. M23 briefly captured Walikale in March but claimed to have pulled back to encourage peace efforts. Clashes in Goma in April left over 50 people dead.

Other armed groups like the ADF (linked to ISIL), FDLR, and RED Tabara continue attacks, worsening instability. Foreign fighters, including some allegedly linked to the Russia-affiliated Africa Corps, have also been involved.

Diplomatic and Regional Efforts

On 18 March, Presidents Tshisekedi (DRC) and Kagame (Rwanda) met in Doha and agreed to a ceasefire. However, talks between the DRC and M23 stalled after the EU sanctioned M23’s leader. Angola, previously leading mediation efforts, has stepped back due to its AU leadership duties, but supports continued talks.

The EAC and SADC are merging regional peace processes. Five co-facilitators—former leaders from Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Central African Republic, and Ethiopia—have been appointed to guide this unified effort. The DRC rejected a proposal for a joint EAC-SADC-AU force.

SADC Mission Withdrawal

The SADC mission (SAMIDRC), deployed since December 2023, suffered setbacks amid heavy fighting. Following a summit in March, the mission's phased withdrawal was approved.

Humanitarian and Human Rights Crisis

UN reports highlight grave rights abuses, including child recruitment, sexual violence, and attacks on hospitals and schools. M23 and other groups, including state forces, are responsible. UNICEF is helping draft a national charter to protect children.

M23 reportedly abducted over 130 patients in Goma. UN officials warn of worsening threats to civil society, including torture and disappearances of activists.

Regional Tensions

Tensions remain high between DRC and Rwanda, each accusing the other of supporting rebel groups. Burundi-Rwanda relations are also strained, though there have been recent military-level talks. In contrast, DRC and Uganda continue cooperation against rebels under Operation Shujaa, despite UN concerns over Uganda’s alleged links to M23.

Council Priorities

Key actions for the Council may include:

• Supporting ceasefire enforcement and the Doha agreement.
• Strengthening coordination among regional peace processes.
• Reviving the PSC-F through the next Regional Oversight Mechanism summit in Uganda.
• Addressing the vacuum left by SAMIDRC's withdrawal, with possible continued MONUSCO support.
• Protecting civilians, children, and human rights defenders.

Geopolitical Angle

There’s growing international interest in DRC’s critical minerals. In a 19 March interview, President Tshisekedi promoted a minerals-for-support proposal to the US. The US has since appointed Massad Boulos as Special Envoy to the region.

Conclusion

The situation in eastern DRC is volatile. The Security Council’s engagement—backed by regional coordination and sustained diplomatic pressure—is essential to halt violence, protect civilians, and restart meaningful dialogue.