Security and Humanitarian Crisis in Bukavu

Security and Military Situation
According to analyses by the INDEPENDENT GROUP of CONGOLESE EXPERTS IN POLITICS CONTEXT AND GEO-STRATEGY (GIE), fighting persists along the Nyabibwe–Lushebere–Nyamukubi axis, which is now under M23 control. This has triggered widespread panic in surrounding areas, including Rambira, Muhongoza, Ihusi, Kabamba, and Katana. Meanwhile, the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) are retreating in disorder toward Kabamba, Katana-Center, Kavumu, and Bukavu, leading to looting and extortion due to a lack of command control.

M23 is advancing towards Bukavu
M23 forces are advancing via mountainous routes, raising concerns over the security of Kavumu airport, particularly through the Tshivanga-Miti axis. Reports indicate that AGEMIRA mercenaries have left Kavumu airport, while security has been tightened at the Ruzizi 1 & 2 border crossings. Some civil authorities have pre-emptively evacuated Bukavu, heightening uncertainty in the region.
The crisis is also affecting migration services and the banking sector. A shortage of migration documents (CEPGL) and limited cash availability in banks have fuelled public anxiety. Any obstruction of migration could constitute a violation of the right to free movement and international humanitarian law. Additionally, employees from key institutions such as the Central Bank and the Judicial Palace have been advised to evacuate.

Risk for prison mutinies
There is also an increased risk of prison mutinies, particularly in strategic detention centres in Kalehe, Kabare, and Bukavu. Authorities may need to implement urgent measures, including transferring high-risk prisoners and considering conditional releases for minor offenders.
Further complicating the situation, a recent M23 meeting in Goma appears to be an effort to legitimize the rebellion, drawing parallels to Laurent-Désiré Kabila’s 1997 campaign in Kisangani. The gathering has already led to a temporary suspension of state and economic activities, adding to the region’s instability.

Risks to the City of Bukavu
Bukavu faces significant vulnerabilities, particularly in its ability to handle large-scale casualties. Unlike Goma, the city lacks adequate hospital facilities, making it essential to secure National Route 5 for potential medical evacuations.
The city's infrastructure is also fragile, with sole reliance on SNEL for electricity and REGIDESO for water. Many neighbourhoods are already experiencing shortages, increasing the risk of cholera and Mpox outbreaks. Further disruptions in supply routes—whether from Rwanda, Kalehe, Idjwi, Kabare, Walungu, Mwenga, Burundi, or Uvira—could worsen the crisis, potentially leading to mass looting. Markets, industrial warehouses, fuel depots, and humanitarian storage sites are particularly at risk, with some merchants already relocating their goods.

Strategic sites in South Kivu
Historical conflicts in 1996, 1998, and 2004 have shown that strategic sites such as the central prison, the 10th military region headquarters, the central bank, the national TV station, military camps, the governor’s office, and other key administrative facilities are likely targets in times of unrest. If the situation escalates, potential evacuation routes include Bukavu-Nyangezi-Kaziba, Bukavu-Kamanyola-Uvira-Bujumbura, or passage through Rwanda, provided borders remain open. However, reports suggest the DRC-Burundi border has already been closed.

Bukavu lacks foreign military presence
Unlike North Kivu and Goma, Bukavu lacks both MONUSCO and regional (SADC) military presence, giving M23 a strategic advantage. The city faces growing security and humanitarian threats, making proactive crisis management essential. Immediate action is needed to ensure evacuation plans, civilian protection, and infrastructure security to prevent further destabilization.

Note: Report based on ANALYSIS OF THE INDEPENDENT GROUP BY CONGOLESE EXPERTS IN POLITICS CONTEXT AND GEO-STRATEGY