Renewed Terror in Nigeria: Why Extremist Attacks Are Escalating

For several months, northeastern Nigeria has been gripped by a surge in jihadist violence, with over 100 people killed in April 2025 alone. Borno State remains at the heart of a conflict that has claimed more than 40,000 lives and displaced 2 million people, also affecting neighbouring Yobe and Adamawa States.

The Lake Chad Basin, a strategic corridor connecting Nigeria with Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, continues to serve as a hub for logistics, recruitment, and cross-border operations by armed groups.

Key Jihadist Groups

• Boko Haram (Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad – JAS): Founded in 2002 in Maiduguri by radical cleric Mohammed Yusuf, Boko Haram originally blamed Nigeria’s problems on Western influence stemming from colonial rule. It launched a violent insurgency in 2009, seizing large areas in the northeast before being pushed back by the Nigerian military. Despite setbacks, it remains active through village raids, kidnappings, and attacks on civilians.
• Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP): Formed in 2016 after a split with Boko Haram, ISWAP is aligned with the Islamic State and opposes violence against Muslims. It focuses on infrastructure and military targets and operates with a more structured and ideological approach.
• Other Groups in the Northwest: In areas near Niger’s border, groups like Ansaru (linked to Al-Qaeda) and Lakurawa operate. Emerging groups in central and northwestern Nigeria blur the lines between organized crime and jihadism, combining terrorism with banditry.
  

Why the Resurgence Now?

• Global Jihadist Directives: Between January and March 2025, the Islamic State instructed its affiliates to ramp up global operations.
• End of Boko Haram–ISWAP Rivalry: The two groups have ceased hostilities against each other and are now coordinating attacks, leveraging reduced military pressure.
• Dry Season Advantage: The dry season improves mobility and operational planning.
• Tactical Evolution: Insurgents now use drones, IEDs, ambushes, and coordinated raids, significantly increasing their impact.
  

Regional Security Challenges

Efforts to combat terrorism in West Africa face structural and operational weaknesses:

• Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) Strained: The MJTF, composed of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, has suffered major setbacks. Niger’s withdrawal in March 2025 weakened cross-border patrols, and Chad is also threatening to pull out, hindering intelligence-sharing and joint operations.
  

Nigerian Military Response

Although Nigerian forces have eliminated some high-profile commanders and regained territory, Boko Haram and ISWAP continue to regroup in ungoverned spaces such as the Lake Chad islands, the Sambisa and Alagarno forests, and the Tombouctou triangle. Troop deployments remain concentrated in major towns, leaving rural and border communities exposed. Political instability at the federal level has further hampered the military’s ability to adapt to the growing threat.

In April 2025, General Abdulsalami Abubakar was appointed to lead renewed counterterrorism efforts in the northeast.

Expanding Violence Beyond the Northeast

The threat is not limited to the northeast. In April, two militant groups in the oil-rich Niger Delta—the Niger Delta and Bakassi Liberation Army (L.A.N.D. & B) and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)—claimed responsibility for attacks on oil pipelines in Bayelsa State.

The militants stated their aim was to “expel usurpers of legitimate authority” from Rivers State, in response to President Bola Tinubu’s recent declaration of a state of emergency there. This decision, made in March following escalating political tensions and sabotage of oil facilities, resulted in the suspension of the state governor, his deputy, and several lawmakers. Retired Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas was appointed as interim administrator.

According to the Minister of State for Petroleum, Heineken Lokpobiri, the attacks have caused “enormous daily revenue losses,” affecting both the government and local communities. The Nigerian firm Oando, which acquired facilities from the Italian company Agip, confirmed three separate pipeline attacks during the same period.

Root Causes and Drivers of the Resurgence

Renewed Boko Haram–ISWAP Cooperation:

• The end of infighting between the two groups has led to greater coordination and operational effectiveness.

Improved Weaponry and Tactics:

• Access to drones and explosives has enhanced their capacity for reconnaissance and high-impact attacks.
• ISWAP benefits from support and training through Islamic State networks.

Shifting International Context:

• The Islamic State’s global call to arms has galvanized its affiliates, resulting in more frequent and coordinated attacks across Nigeria.

Weak Governance in Rural Areas:

• Poor government presence in rural regions has allowed insurgents to rebuild, recruit, and expand influence.
• The MJTF’s diminished capability has reduced border control and intelligence coordination.

Consequences and Outlook

The implications of the renewed violence are grave:

• Humanitarian Crisis: Thousands of civilians are being displaced as villages come under attack.
• Economic Disruption: Farmers are abandoning land, trade is disrupted, and vital oil production is threatened.
• Regional Spillover: Weakened security cooperation could allow the conflict to spread to neighbouring Chad, Niger, and Cameroon.

Analysts at Africa Security Analysis warn that unless Nigeria and its neighbours urgently reinforce their military coordination and stabilize rural areas, insurgents will continue to gain ground. Well-funded, increasingly organized, and supported by global jihadist networks, Boko Haram and ISWAP pose a growing threat not only to Nigeria but to the wider region.