Regional Political and Security Outlook – Central Africa (UNOCA)

Monthly Situational Analysis and Forecast – December 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Central Africa entered the final quarter of 2025 amid intensifying political tensions, weakened institutional cohesion, and persistent extremist activity. ECCAS experienced a major rupture following the extension of Equatorial Guinea’s presidency and Rwanda’s subsequent withdrawal, reducing the organisation’s capacity for coordinated crisis management. Cameroon’s highly contested 12 October election triggered violent protests, adding to longstanding instability in the Anglophone regions.

In the Lake Chad Basin, Boko Haram and ISWAP maintained elevated operational tempo despite MNJTF countermeasures, while Niger’s withdrawal from the force and Chad’s fluctuating commitment further undermined regional counter-terrorism coherence. Broader geopolitical dynamics intensified when US President Donald Trump suggested a unilateral deployment of US military assets to Nigeria, prompting sovereignty-focused pushback from Abuja and a cautionary statement from the African Union.

These developments unfold as UNOCA faces widening demands in preventive diplomacy but continues to operate under significant resource constraints, prompting discussions around the establishment of a trust fund. The upcoming Security Council briefing is expected to focus on electoral tensions, ECCAS fissures, Lake Chad Basin insecurity, and the operational impact of Niger’s withdrawal from MNJTF.

KEY JUDGEMENTS

• Regional political cohesion weakened significantly following Rwanda’s withdrawal from ECCAS and Cameroon’s post-electoral unrest, reducing the effectiveness of multilateral crisis-prevention frameworks.
• Boko Haram and ISWAP expanded operations in the Lake Chad Basin, leveraging drones and cross-border mobility, while Niger’s withdrawal from MNJTF created structural vulnerabilities within the coalition.
• Political instability in Cameroon and the upcoming elections in CAR represent acute risks for regional stability and UNOCA’s good offices mandate.
• Growing friction between Nigeria and the United States over proposed US military involvement risks complicating already fragile regional security coordination.
• UNOCA’s resource limitations constrain preventive diplomacy at a time of heightened political fragmentation and expanding extremist threats.

FULL REPORT

1. Introduction: UNOCA Mandate and Expected Security Council Action

The UN Security Council is scheduled to receive a briefing in December on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report concerning the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) and on the implementation of the regional strategy to counter the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Special Representative Abdou Abarry will brief the Council, with UNOCA’s mandate continuing until 31 August 2027. This session comes at a time of escalating political tensions, institutional weaknesses, and expanding extremist activity across Central Africa.

2. Political Developments within ECCAS

2.1 ECCAS Summit and Internal Fractures

On 7 June, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) held its Ordinary Summit in Malabo, focusing on consolidating reforms and advancing regional integration. While leaders addressed the worsening violence in eastern DRC, internal political disputes overshadowed the agenda. The decision to extend Equatorial Guinea’s presidency, blocking Rwanda’s assumption of the rotating post, triggered diplomatic fallout. Rwanda denounced the move as a violation of ECCAS’ constitutive act and formally withdrew from the organisation.

An extraordinary summit held on 7 September later appointed Ezéchiel Nibigira of Burundi as Commission President, signalling a shift in internal power balances.

2.2 Implications for Regional Stability

ECCAS’ cohesion has deteriorated at a time when coordinated responses to regional crises—such as instability in DRC, CAR, and the Gulf of Guinea—are crucial. Rwanda’s withdrawal diminishes the organisation's crisis-mediation capabilities and weakens regional early-warning mechanisms. Internal mistrust among member states poses structural challenges for future engagements.

3. Post-Electoral Tension and Governance Pressures in Cameroon

3.1 Contested Presidential Election

Cameroon held its presidential election on 12 October, resulting in the re-election of President Paul Biya for an eighth term. The announcement triggered widespread protests in Douala, with opposition groups alleging electoral fraud. Civilian deaths, arrests, and reported instances of repression were documented.

3.2 AU Response and Long-Term Risks

The African Union congratulated Biya while expressing grave concern over the political violence and repression. The contested election adds to Cameroon’s long-standing governance challenges, particularly in the Northwest and Southwest regions, where separatist conflict continues.

4. Lake Chad Basin: Counter-Terrorism Environment and MNJTF Pressures

4.1 AU Peace and Security Council Review

On 10 June, the AU Peace and Security Council reviewed MNJTF operations and the Regional Strategy for Stabilisation, Recovery, and Resilience (RS-SRR). While MNJTF forces from Cameroon, Chad, and Nigeria continued joint operations, extremist groups sustained significant activity.

4.2 Impact of Niger’s Withdrawal and Chad’s Conditional Posture

Niger’s March 2025 withdrawal from MNJTF has had significant operational implications. Analysts widely attribute Boko Haram’s resurgence to the security vacuum created by this exit. Chad’s dissatisfaction with MNJTF effectiveness—particularly following the October 2024 attack that killed 40 soldiers—raises concerns regarding future cohesion.

4.3 Tactical Shifts by Boko Haram and ISWAP

Both groups have adopted more advanced tools such as drones and expanded online propaganda. Nigeria’s report of killing 35 militants in August did little to reverse the perception that extremist groups retain significant operational momentum.

5. External Geopolitical Pressures: US–Nigeria Tension

In early November, US President Donald Trump stated that he was considering deploying US forces to Nigeria to “protect Christians,” triggering political controversy. Nigeria responded cautiously, emphasizing sovereignty and territorial integrity, while the African Union warned that unilateral foreign intervention could destabilize the region and undermine established norms of conflict management.

6. Key Issues Facing the Security Council

6.1 Political Tensions and Electoral Sensitivities

The Council is expected to focus on post-electoral tensions in Cameroon and preparations for December elections in the Central African Republic. Members will also seek updates on worsening insecurity in eastern DRC.

6.2 The Lake Chad Basin's Security Landscape

Council members will request further assessment of how Niger’s withdrawal from MNJTF is affecting operational effectiveness and how extremist groups’ adoption of drones alters threat dynamics.

6.3 Addressing Structural Drivers of Conflict

The Council continues to support the RS-SRR and will closely watch outcomes of the Informal Expert Group on Climate and Security’s visit to the Lake Chad Basin.

6.4 UNOCA Resource Constraints

SRSG Abarry has indicated that UNOCA is exploring a trust fund to compensate for resource deficits affecting preventive diplomacy capacities.

Council Dynamics

The Council remains committed to a regional, coordinated approach involving ECCAS, the African Union, and the Lake Chad Basin Commission. However, members continue to diverge on whether climate-security linkages should form part of the Council’s formal agenda. Sudan’s regional spillover effects and instability in eastern DRC featured prominently in the 9 June Council discussion. Members also reiterated support for MNJTF and condemned increased extremist violence. The UK remains the penholder on UNOCA.

Risk Category: Regional Political Fragmentation

Description: ECCAS weakening due to Rwanda withdrawal; leadership disputes undermine mediation capacity.

Likelihood: High

Impact: High

Overall Risk: Severe

Risk Category: Cameroon Post-Electoral Instability

Description: Violence, repression, and political tensions following disputed election.

Likelihood: High

Impact: Medium–High

Overall Risk: High

Risk Category: Lake Chad Basin Extremist Expansion

Description: Boko Haram/ISWAP increase drone usage, mobility, and recruitment; MNJTF cohesion declining.

Likelihood: High

Impact: High

Overall Risk: Severe

Risk Category: State Withdrawal From Multilateral Security Structures

Description: Niger’s exit from MNJTF and Chad’s potential disengagement reduce regional counter-terror effectiveness.

Likelihood: Medium–High

Impact: High

Overall Risk: High

Risk Category: Foreign Intervention Tensions

Description: US–Nigeria diplomatic friction increasing risk of misunderstanding or destabilizing unilateral actions.

Likelihood:Medium

Impact: Medium–High

Overall Risk: Substantial

Risk Category: UNOCA Resource Shortfall

Description: Budget constraints limit preventive diplomacy, dialogue facilitation, and regional engagement.

Likelihood: High

Impact: Medium

Overall Risk: High

Monthly Situational Analysis and Forecast – December 2025