Mozambique’s Security Landscape: Challenges and Developments

Ongoing Insurgency in Cabo Delgado

The Islamist militant group Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ) continues to pose a significant threat in the northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado. Despite intensified military operations, including support from the Rwandan Defence Force, ASWJ maintains its capacity for attacks, utilizing guerrilla tactics and improvised explosive devices. Insurgents have been targeting villages, setting up roadblocks, and clashing with security forces in districts such as Macomia. These incidents include ambushes, executions, and looting, contributing to ongoing displacement. The insurgency has resulted in approximately 8,000 deaths and over 80,000 people fled their homes in 2024 alone, adding to the 540,000 already displaced as of late 2023.

Political Unrest Following the 2024 Elections

The October 9, 2024, general elections triggered nationwide unrest, with opposition groups alleging electoral fraud. The ruling FRELIMO party’s candidate, Daniel Chapo, was declared the winner with 70.67% of the vote, a result contested by opposition groups, including PODEMOS and runner-up Venâncio Mondlane.

Protests erupted in Maputo and other major cities, leading to a forceful response from security forces. Reports indicate that over 30 demonstrators were killed, and hundreds were arrested. The crackdown also included internet restrictions. A SADC summit in November 2024 called for calm and legal resolutions to the crisis. Despite Chapo’s inauguration in January 2025 and his calls for dialogue, sporadic protests persist, reflecting deep public frustration with FRELIMO’s decades-long rule.

Additional Security Concerns

Beyond the insurgency and political turmoil, Mozambique faces other security threats. Kidnapping for ransom remains a significant issue in urban areas such as Maputo, with reports of police involvement in some cases.

The SADC mission is scheduled to wind down by July 2025, raising concerns over a potential security vacuum in Cabo Delgado. While some troops may remain, the government insists it has the situation under control. However, humanitarian needs in the north remain critical, with displaced populations suffering from trauma, food insecurity, and limited access to essential services.

Outlook: A Nation Under Strain

Mozambique’s security landscape remains fraught with challenges, including insurgent activity, political instability, and socio-economic grievances. With no immediate resolution in sight, the country continues to navigate a volatile and uncertain future.