Escalating Crisis in Eastern DR

Evacuations and Military Strain in Kinshasa
Following the urgent security measures implemented by MONUSCO, including the relocation of non-essential personnel from Goma to Entebbe in Uganda and Kinshasa, as well as the demonstrations recorded in Kinshasa last week after the capture of the strategic city of Goma by the M23 armed group, several embassies have advised their nationals to exercise caution. Other embassies have requested their citizens to leave the city immediately. The situation has been continuously monitored, and updates have been provided, accompanied by a document published by MONUSCO.

Families of UN staff will be evacuated from Kinshasa for 3 months
Based on the recommendations of the security management team, the authorized officer has decided that all recognized dependents (persons dependent on international staff/United Nations Volunteers) physically present in Kinshasa must be evacuated immediately for a period of three months. This evacuation will be re-evaluated monthly, and if security conditions allow for a return, the restrictions will be lifted.
International staff and United Nations Volunteers with dependents currently present in Kinshasa must plan the departure of their dependents to a third country of their choice as soon as possible. Demonstrations will increase across the city of Kinshasa.

Mobilizing young to enlist in the army
Beyond the demonstrations, increasing distrust is observed within the military security services before and after the Goma debacle. The former Vice Prime Minister of Defense, and current Vice Prime Minister of Transport, who is very close to the President, is touring the country to mobilize young people to enlist in the army. Some officers believe he plays a crucial role in decision-making within the army due to his close ties with the President and his past at The Hague.

Mercenaries hired to protect the president
Another source of concern within the army is the recruitment of white mercenaries to ensure the security of President Félix Tshisekedi and train soldiers at the eastern fronts. In Kinshasa, about forty mercenaries are housed in a luxurious hotel in the city center, at 300 dollars a night without meals. Meanwhile, Congolese soldiers with several years of service reveal they have not received their pay for months.
The dismissal of several officers from the former regime under Joseph Kabila has also sown doubts in President Tshisekedi about the loyalty of the troops responsible for his security. The attempted coup on May 19, 2024, by Christian Malanga has exacerbated his fears, leading to the arrival of mercenaries in Kinshasa. Suspicions regarding the influence of his predecessor, Joseph Kabila, on potential movements persist, especially as Kabila remains silent and resides in Namibia or South Africa, reinforcing his image as a potential threat.

Many generals are still loyal to former president Kabila
Tensions are palpable, with several generals remaining loyal to Kabila, some of whom wield significant influence over troops in Kinshasa. The possibility of a coup is widely discussed. The President is under tension, aware of the soldiers' discontent and budget misappropriations, especially after the Goma debacle, where operation commanders managed to flee, leaving soldiers without a chain of command. Our information indicates that the Vice Governor of North Kivu Province, as well as Generals Papy and Danny, have been arrested in Bukavu and transferred to Kinshasa.

Dysfunctional army
There are also dysfunctions within the military intelligence services, as well as those of the President’s civil house and the FARDC General Staff. Soldiers still complain of a severe lack of resources, weapons, food, boots, rain gear, or delays in the payment of wages, which pauperizes part of the regular army. Not to mention the endemic corruption that plagues high-ranking military officials. Tensions with East African Community countries, except Burundi, and with Congo-Brazzaville allied with Rwanda, add to the complexity. Ethnic tensions involving the Mobondo militia in the west, which attacks members of the Teke community, also aggravate the situation. This anger could lead to an explosion of violence, with the timing and origin of this violence remaining uncertain.