Drone Strike Eliminates Prominent Tribal Leader in RSF-Controlled North Kordofan

African Security Analysis (ASA) has examined reports from Sudan War Monitor and additional sources, revealing a targeted drone airstrike in North Kordofan State that claimed the life of Paramount Chief Suleiman Jaber Jumaa Sahl, a key influencer within the Arab Majaneen tribe, alongside ten senior elders. This incident, occurring amid escalating tensions in Sudan's civil war, not only fractures indigenous leadership but also signals an intensification of asymmetric warfare tactics, potentially destabilizing tribal alliances and exacerbating communal divisions in Africa's volatile Sahel region.

Details from Sudan War Monitor indicate the strike hit Al-Mazroub in the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) -controlled West Bara locality on October 17, 2025. Analyzed footage shows victims in the compound courtyard, some covered in bloodied sheets, after an explosion disrupted a leadership meeting on local issues. Eyewitnesses described pandemonium as the wounded—fifteen in total—were transported to Mazroub Hospital using vehicles and animal carts in dusty conditions. Recent updates from Sudan Tribune confirm the attack killed at least 17 people, including the nazir (tribal leader), highlighting the scale of civilian casualties in what appears to be a precision operation.

The fallen elders, essential for mediation and governance, included Bukhari Mishawir Jaber Jumaa, Abdel-Hafiz Abu Rukok, Nile Ibrahim Jaber Jumaa, Mohamed Ibrahim Jaber Jumaa, Jumaa Mirdas, Aboud Haj Mohamed, Haj Obeid, Mohamed El Sayed, Khalifa Mofreh, and Abdel-Baqi Farah. As a descendant of Mishawir Jumaa Sahl, a signatory to Sudan's 1955 independence, Chief Suleiman was pivotal in neutral dispute resolution, rendering his elimination a critical loss for Kordofan's fragile social equilibrium.

Al-Mazroub's location in RSF territory—bordering West Kordofan (southwest), Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) -held Sheikan (south), partially SAF -controlled Bara (east), and army-dominated northern areas—exposes RSF vulnerabilities to SAF aerial incursions, despite no official SAF acknowledgment. Pro-SAF social media initially attributed the strike to RSF internal strife, a narrative debunked by observers noting the unlikelihood of self-inflicted attacks in secure zones.

The RSF's Telegram response accused the SAF of a "genocidal campaign" via the "terrorist Islamic Movement," framing it as civilian-targeted aggression. Their statement: "In continuation of their grave violations and deliberate targeting of innocent civilians, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), operating under the so-called terrorist Islamic Movement, committed yet another massacre on Friday using a drone that directly targeted civilians. The attack resulted in the deaths of dozens of innocent people, including the chief, senior figures of the civil administration, and prominent members of Majaneen tribe in Al-Mazroub area, which lies under the control of our forces in North Kordofan State. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while mourning the martyrs of the region, strongly condemns this heinous act of aggression and affirms that the deliberate targeting of civilians falls within the framework of the revenge and genocide campaign waged by the so-called ‘terrorist SAF,’ led by the Port Sudan clique, against the civilian components of community."

Pro-RSF authorities in West Kordofan labelled it a "grave violation of national values," underscoring the leaders' role in societal cohesion. From ASA's viewpoint, this strike exemplifies the erosion of traditional authority through drone warfare, risking heightened tribal fragmentation and impeding post-conflict reconciliation in Sudan's west. Moreover, ASA notes that such targeted killings could provoke retaliatory cycles, drawing in allied militias and expanding the conflict's footprint into neighbouring Chad or South Sudan, where tribal networks overlap.

ASA further analyses the broader security implications: The elimination of neutral figures like Chief Suleiman weakens informal peace mechanisms, potentially leading to increased recruitment into armed groups as communities seek protection. This aligns with patterns observed in other African conflicts, such as Mali's Tuareg dynamics, where loss of elder’s fuels radicalization and cross-border instability.

Escalating Clashes in El Fasher and Rural North Darfur

Sudan War Monitor and recent reports detail heightened combat in El Fasher, North Darfur's capital and SAF's 6th Infantry Division hub, where RSF forces press to seize the city—the army's last western stronghold. Battles have reached the division's edges, marking RSF's deepest advance since April 2023.

Intelligence via Sudan War Monitor confirms RSF capture of the Joint Forces HQ in the ex-UNAMID compound northwest of the city on October 17, after fierce drone and artillery-supported engagements. Videos verify RSF presence, with Joint Forces retreating to 6th Division lines.

SAF claimed repelling the "258th attack" by RSF "mercenaries," destroying ten vehicles, disabling one, capturing two, and killing many fighters.

Their communique

"The 6th Infantry Division, the Joint Forces, and supporting units repelled the 258th attack launched by mercenaries of the terrorist militia owned by the Dagalo family on the city from the northern and northeastern axes, beginning at six o’clock in the morning. The enemy used infantry supported by more than fifty combat vehicles and armoured carriers. By God’s grace, our forces crushed the enemy, inflicting heavy losses in lives and equipment, destroying ten vehicles, disabling one, and capturing two others fully equipped, while neutralizing dozens of enemy fighters. The process of counting the remaining vehicles and weapons is ongoing. We dedicate this victory to the Sudanese people. It is the fruit of cooperation, determination, and reliance on God. The situation is stable, and your forces remain united, operating from a single trench with high morale. Paradise to our righteous martyrs, swift recovery to the wounded, and a safe return to our missing, God willing."

Contrasting evidence from Sudan War Monitor shows RSF control of the UNAMID site, enabling oversight of northwestern routes, with ongoing assaults on industrial and Al-Salam areas under shelling. El Fasher's fall could dismantle SAF's Darfur presence, disrupting central Sudan logistics.

Humanitarian consequences are catastrophic

RSF blockades on Tawila and Garni routes have caused executions, arrests, food scarcity, and kitchen closures. Videos depict residents boiling cowhides for food, portending famine. Recent data from ReliefWeb and The Guardian indicate thousands on survival's brink, with RSF artillery hitting shelters and killing civilians.

Spillover into rural zones includes Abu Qumra in Kornoi, near Chad, where RSF razed homes, looted a hospital, and detained locals post-rebel defection, before retreating. Governor Minni Arko Minnawi decried it as an "unprovoked civilian assault," framing the conflict as anti-division rather than anti-tribal.

Intra-Zaghawa disputes in Kornoi and Tina were mediated, preventing deeper RSF-SAF entanglement. ASA assesses this as a broadening theatre, with ethnic-territorial factors risking prolonged unrest across Sudan's frontiers.

ASA highlights international dimensions

Allegations of UAE arming RSF, per Foreign Policy, and SAF claims of killing Colombian/Ukrainian mercenaries underscore proxy elements, mirroring Libya's foreign involvement and threatening Sahel-wide escalation. This could draw UN intervention, as noted in Security Council reports, but without halting external support, peace remains elusive.

ASA warns that the siege's humanitarian toll—over 20 million at risk of famine, per IBA—could trigger mass migration, straining Chad and Egypt, and foster extremist recruitment in ungoverned spaces. Strategic recommendations include bolstering African Union mediation to integrate tribal leaders, curbing arms flows via regional pacts, and prioritizing aid corridors to avert a broader catastrophe.