Diplomatic Friction After Eswatini Hosts Madagascar’s Ousted President

Exile, Legitimacy, and the Fragility of Post-Coup Transitions

Executive Overview

Relations between Eswatini and Madagascar’s military authorities have entered a tense phase following Eswatini’s decision to host ousted Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina last week. The meeting between Rajoelina and King Mswati III, publicly framed as part of regional diplomatic facilitation, has been sharply condemned by Madagascar’s ruling military council as a violation of national sovereignty and a potential threat to the fragile transition process.

African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses the incident as more than a bilateral diplomatic dispute. It reflects deeper fault lines common to post-coup environments: unresolved legitimacy, contested exile politics, and regional uncertainty over how to manage deposed leaders without destabilizing transitions.

The Trigger: A Diplomatic Gesture with Political Weight

The controversy erupted after Eswatini released images of King Mswati III meeting Andry Rajoelina, the former Malagasy president overthrown in October 2025. During the encounter, the king reportedly called on Madagascar’s military authorities to restore constitutional order, a statement that immediately elevated the meeting from symbolic diplomacy to a politically charged intervention.

For Madagascar’s military leadership, the optics were unacceptable. Colonel Michael Randrianirina, head of the ruling council, issued a strongly worded statement condemning the visit as “politically unacceptable” and a “grave infringement of sovereignty.”

The public nature of the meeting—especially its dissemination through official Eswatini channels—was a critical factor in the junta’s reaction. Quiet mediation may have been tolerated; public visibility was not.

Madagascar’s Sensitivities: Legitimacy Under Pressure

Rajoelina’s overthrow followed weeks of youth-led protests over power and water shortages—grievances that culminated in the military siding with demonstrators. The new authorities have since sought to frame themselves as custodians of order and national stability, while distancing the transition from Rajoelina’s legacy.

The junta’s statement underscores two core anxieties:

• Legitimacy erosion: Any external platform given to Rajoelina risks reintroducing him into the political narrative.
• Legal framing: The military claims Rajoelina voluntarily renounced Malagasy nationality after acquiring another citizenship, arguing that any attempt to present himself as a national representative is “legally unfounded.”

ASA believes that the reference to the September–October 2025 fatalities (approximately 30 deaths) is deliberate. It reinforces a narrative that links Rajoelina directly to past violence, strengthening the junta’s justification for excluding him from the transition process.

Eswatini’s Position: Mediation or Miscalculation?

Eswatini has defended its actions by emphasizing its regional diplomatic role. The monarchy insists that Rajoelina did not seek protection or political backing and that the meeting was conducted after consultation with the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Eswatini’s position reflects a familiar tension in African diplomacy:

• monarchies and senior regional actors often view themselves as neutral conveners;
• transitional regimes often see the same actions as interference.

The monarchy’s response—describing criticism as “misguided and unfortunate”—suggests Eswatini does not intend to retreat from its interpretation of its diplomatic mandate.

The Regional Layer: SADC’s Balancing Act

SADC sits uncomfortably at the centre of this dispute. The bloc has already directed Madagascar’s military authorities to submit, by 28 February, a roadmap for restoring democracy, including election timelines. Colonel Randrianirina has pledged elections within two years—a horizon SADC is watching closely.

ASA assesses that SADC’s primary concern is process stability, not personalities. However, the Eswatini–Rajoelina meeting complicates this effort by:

• introducing an external legitimacy vector for the ousted leader;
• hardening the junta’s defensive posture;
• and potentially narrowing space for inclusive dialogue.

Risk Assessment: Why This Matters

ASA identifies three immediate risks:

1. Hardening of the junta’s stance
Public condemnation suggests the military may double down on excluding Rajoelina from any reconciliation framework.

2. Politicization of exile
If Rajoelina continues to appear in regional diplomatic settings, he could become a rallying symbol for opposition forces inside Madagascar.

3. Diplomatic fragmentation
Divergent interpretations among SADC members on how to handle deposed leaders could weaken collective leverage over the transition.

Conclusion – What May Happen Next

African Security Analysis (ASA) assesses several plausible next steps:

1. Quiet diplomatic de-escalation
SADC is likely to move behind the scenes to cool tensions, encouraging Eswatini to limit public engagement with Rajoelina while pressing Madagascar’s military to refocus on the transition roadmap.

2. Junta consolidation in Madagascar
The military authorities may accelerate legal and constitutional steps to formalize Rajoelina’s exclusion, framing it as necessary for stability and justice.

3. Managed political exile
Rajoelina is likely to remain politically active but constrained—engaging selectively with regional actors while avoiding overt claims to leadership to prevent further backlash.

4. Increased scrutiny of the transition timeline
Any perception that the junta is using the dispute to delay reforms could prompt stronger SADC pressure, including deadlines and conditional engagement.

In ASA’s assessment, the incident highlights a broader lesson for post-coup Africa: how deposed leaders are treated abroad can decisively shape the success—or failure—of domestic transitions. If mishandled, symbolic meetings can reopen political wounds faster than formal negotiations can heal them.

The coming weeks—particularly the submission of Madagascar’s SADC roadmap—will determine whether this episode remains a diplomatic flare-up or evolves into a deeper regional fault line.

Source: African Security Analysis (ASA) — regional diplomatic monitoring, political risk analysis, and security assessment