Central African Republic: Election Campaign Opens Under a Persistent Security Shadow

Executive Summary

The opening of the campaign for the 28 December 2025 elections in the Central African Republic marks a high-risk political moment in a country where electoral processes remain deeply intertwined with security dynamics. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, formally launching his campaign, has positioned himself as the primary guarantor of stability in a fragile state still grappling with armed groups, weak institutions, and heavy reliance on external security partners.

The opposition has entered the race with a counter-narrative cantered on economic recovery and institutional erosion, arguing that governance structures have been hollowed out under the banner of security. Meanwhile, United Nations–linked assessments continue to flag security and violence risks, reinforcing concerns that the electoral period could act as a catalyst for localized unrest.

In this context, “stability optics” have become a central element of the campaign itself—used both as a political asset and a defensive shield against scrutiny.

Campaign Launch in a Polarized Environment

President Touadéra’s campaign opening emphasized continuity, sovereignty, and security, portraying his leadership as the last bulwark against a return to large-scale violence. This messaging resonates in a country where memories of civil war remain vivid and where the state’s territorial control remains uneven.

Opposition candidates, while fragmented, have sought to reframe the debate. Their narrative focuses on economic stagnation, governance fatigue, and weakened institutions, arguing that stability without development has produced dependency rather than resilience. This framing challenges the government’s core legitimacy claims but does so in an environment where political contestation carries inherent security risks.

Security Concerns and the Electoral Risk Envelope

Despite formal campaign openings, security conditions remain volatile, particularly outside Bangui. Armed group presence, criminal predation, and the potential for electoral intimidation persist across multiple prefectures. UN-linked briefings have warned that campaign rallies, voting logistics, and result announcements could trigger flashpoint violence if not carefully managed.

These concerns have prompted repeated calls from major candidates for a peaceful campaign. However, such appeals also reflect an implicit acknowledgment that the risk of disruption is real, and that electoral legitimacy will be judged as much by the absence of violence as by procedural correctness.

Stability as a Political Instrument

In CAR, stability is not merely a policy objective—it is a political currency. The incumbent’s messaging leverages fear of regression, while opposition voices must carefully criticize without appearing to threaten fragile calm.

These dynamic narrows political space and reinforces polarization. Any incident—whether armed clashes, voter intimidation, or disputed results—risks being immediately politicized, potentially triggering security responses that further constrain civic activity.

Implications for Security, Aid, and Economic Actors

The election represents a risk event with spillover effects beyond politics. For regional security contractors, electoral tension influences rules of engagement and operational posture. For humanitarian organizations, campaign-period instability directly affects aid corridors, access negotiations, and staff safety.

Frontier extractive interests, already operating under elevated risk, face heightened uncertainty as political outcomes may influence concession security, local grievance dynamics, and regulatory enforcement. Even absent nationwide violence, localized disruptions can materially affect operations.

Conclusion: An Election Framed by Fear and Fragility

As the Central African Republic enters the final stretch toward the December 28 vote, the campaign unfolds less as a contest of policy visions than as a referendum on stability itself. The heavy security backdrop, polarized narratives, and persistent risk of violence underscore how deeply politics and security remain fused.

Whether the election reinforces fragile calm or introduces new fault lines will depend not only on voting day, but on how security is managed throughout the campaign and aftermath. For CAR and its partners, vigilance—not complacency—will determine whether this electoral moment stabilizes the country or further entrenches its cycles of risk.

Why It Matters

CAR’s election is not simply a domestic political exercise—it is a stress test for the country’s fragile security equilibrium. Campaign tensions feed directly into:

• country risk perceptions,
• humanitarian access constraints,
• security-sector posture, and
• investor confidence in high-risk frontier environments.

Stability during the electoral period will shape not only political legitimacy, but also the operating environment for international actors well into 2026.

In the context of CAR’s elections, African Security Analysis (ASA) provides critical early-warning and decision-support capabilities by:

• Monitoring electoral-security indicators, including armed group activity, population movement, and political signalling.
• Assessing localized risk, identifying prefectures and corridors most exposed to election-related disruption.
• Scenario modelling, mapping post-election outcomes—from managed continuity to contested legitimacy—and their security implications.
• Advisory support for humanitarian, diplomatic, and commercial actors seeking to adjust posture, access plans, or risk mitigation strategies in real time.

ASA’s role is to move beyond surface-level political analysis and connect electoral dynamics to operational and security consequences, enabling informed decision-making before escalation occurs.

Region: Central Africa – Central African Republic (CAR)
Department: Political Stability, Conflict Risk & Electoral Security